Lockheed Martin: Dividend Appeal Versus Institutional Doubt

Lockheed US5398301094

Lockheed Martin shares face a pivotal session this Monday, presenting investors with a compelling dichotomy. As the stock trades ex-dividend, offering a substantial quarterly payout, significant institutional investors are concurrently reducing their stakes. This divergence raises a critical question about whether the stock's yield can offset the growing caution among professional money managers.

Trading commenced on Monday, December 1st, with Lockheed Martin shares marked ex-dividend. Shareholders of record are set to receive a quarterly distribution of $3.45 per share on December 30th. Annualized, this payout equates to an approximate yield of 3% at recent price levels.

Beneath this attractive income proposition, however, notable shifts in institutional ownership are occurring. Recent regulatory filings reveal a trend of divestment. The New York State Common Retirement Fund decreased its holding by 2.1% in the second quarter, selling 5,200 shares. A more substantial reduction was executed by Scotia Capital, which slashed its position by a significant 22.1%. These moves are contrasted by Mackenzie Financial, which increased its stake by 3%. This mixed activity underscores the deep division over the equity's valuation in the $450 to $460 range.

Robust Earnings Met with Tepid Guidance

The hesitation from major funds appears rooted in a fundamental disconnect within the company's recent communications. Lockheed Martin posted a strong third-quarter performance, with earnings per share reaching $6.95, surpassing the average analyst estimate of $6.33. Revenue also saw healthy growth, climbing 8.8% to $18.61 billion.

The concern stems from management's subsequent outlook. For the full 2025 fiscal year, the company issued EPS guidance between $22.15 and $22.35. This forecast falls notably short of the consensus analyst expectation, which stands around $27.15. This gap between present operational success and a conservative future projection is fueling market uncertainty. The analyst community reflects this ambivalence: of 25 firms covering the stock, 15 currently maintain a "Hold" rating, while only seven advocate a "Buy."

Sector Tailwinds and Divergent Price Targets

This caution persists even within a favorable industry context. Global defense contractors collectively achieved record sales last year, with revenues advancing 5.9%. Some market researchers see the current valuation as an opportunity amidst the doubt. BNP Paribas Exane has assigned an "Outperform" rating with a price target of $550, anticipating a substantial rebound. The average price target among analysts is $515.50, representing a potential 12% upside from Friday's closing price.

The core investment dilemma remains unresolved. Is the reliable dividend sufficient to anchor the investment thesis, or does the subdued corporate guidance represent a red flag that institutional investors are heeding?