Kaspi.kz Stock: A Return to Shareholder Payouts

Kaspi.kz US48581R2058

Investors in Kaspi.kz are watching for signs of sustained stability as the company prepares to reinstate its dividend program. Trading near $77.54, the share price currently sits approximately 8.9% above its 52-week low of $70.61. The upcoming quarterly results and progress on strategic international acquisitions are seen as pivotal factors that will determine if this recovery can gain further traction.

Following a pullback from its 52-week peak of $111.45, the stock appears to be attempting to establish a new base. With a market capitalization hovering around $14.68 billion, the company's trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio stands at approximately 6.9, a level that remains below its historical averages. Market experts maintain a positive outlook, with a median price target of $98.50, suggesting potential upside of more than 25% from current levels. Key technical levels to watch include support at the $70.61 low and the next significant resistance point at $87.30.

The Dividend Comeback Plan

The planned resumption of cash distributions marks a strategic shift after a pause in 2025, which was utilized to fund major acquisitions. The management's decision to schedule payments is widely interpreted as a signal of regained financial strength, indicating confidence in balancing ongoing operational investments with capital returns to shareholders.

Key details of the planned dividend are:
* Projected Payout: $1.71 per share
* Expected Ex-Dividend Date: February 20, 2026
* Payment Date: February 26, 2026
* Current TTM Dividend Yield: 0.00% → A return to payouts is scheduled.

Earnings Forecast and Strategic Acquisitions

All eyes are on the integration of recently acquired international assets. The purchase of Rabobank A.Ş. in Turkey is anticipated to finalize by mid-2026, pending the necessary regulatory approvals.

Financial metrics ahead of the quarterly report reveal a mixed picture:
* Q4 2025 Report Date: Expected on February 24, 2026
* Consensus Q4 EPS Estimate: $2.60 (compared to $3.09 in the year-ago quarter)
* Estimated Q4 2025 Revenue: Approximately 1.176 trillion KZT

The consensus estimates point to a slight year-over-year contraction in earnings. This places additional importance on the February report to demonstrate margin resilience during the integration of Hepsiburada and other Turkish operations.

The timeline creates a concentrated period of catalysts: the ex-dividend and payment dates occur in mid-to-late February, with the quarterly earnings release sandwiched between on the 24th. Should the company's results surpass expectations and its integration proceed smoothly, the stock is likely to find solid support. Conversely, any earnings shortfall could renew near-term downward pressure on the share price.