Japan's Pension Fund Crypto Move Offers Glimmer for Metaplanet's Plunging Stock

Metaplanet shares cling to €1.30 support after an 88% plunge from highs. Japan's corporate pension fund plans 1% crypto allocation, offering a long-term tailwind amid brutal technical breakdown.

Metaplanet shares are clinging to the €1.30 mark after a gruelling sell-off that has erased nearly 88% of the stock's value since its record high last June. Friday’s marginal gain offered little relief as the equity trades just above its absolute low, leaving investors groping for a floor in what has become a brutal technical breakdown.

The Japanese company’s Bitcoin-heavy strategy has backfired spectacularly in recent months. Year-to-date losses stand at roughly 42%, and the stock remains deep in bear territory. The 200-day moving average sits at €2.43 — an almost 87% gap from current levels — while the 50-day average of €1.60 is still nearly a fifth higher than the prevailing price. The Relative Strength Index has dipped to 38, edging towards oversold territory but not yet flashing the extreme signals that often trigger reversals.

Yet amid the wreckage, an unexpected institutional catalyst is emerging. Japan’s Corporate Pension Fund, which manages assets on behalf of roughly 1,200 companies, will introduce a fixed crypto allocation from the fiscal year 2026. One per cent of its portfolio is to be directed into digital assets. The move follows a recent parliamentary overhaul of Japan’s crypto regulations, designed to ease institutional participation. Separately, the cabinet amended the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act in April, formally classifying cryptocurrencies as financial products from fiscal 2027 — a change that will impose stricter disclosure rules and tougher penalties for insider trading.

For Metaplanet, which has staked its corporate identity on an aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy, the regulatory pivot could reshape the Japanese crypto landscape in ways that directly benefit its model. The government’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party is also exploring the launch of crypto exchange-traded funds and higher leverage limits for derivatives, further broadening the institutional runway.

Technically, the stock’s immediate fate hinges on the €1.30 support level. A break below that line opens the door to a test of the year’s low at €1.20, a breach that would likely accelerate selling. Conversely, any sustained recovery above €1.30 would buy the equity a brief respite. With volatility remaining extreme and the path to a genuine trend reversal still forbiddingly steep, the pension fund’s decision offers a rare structural tailwind — but one that will take months, if not years, to materialise.