ITM Power Tumbles 27% in a Week as Goldman, MSCI, and Project Timelines Align Against It

ITM Power shares fell 15.25% amid Goldman Sachs' 'Sell' rating and sector weakness, despite a green hydrogen partnership and government funding. The stock is down 34% from its May peak.

Investors hit the sell button with unusual force on Friday, driving ITM Power shares down 15.25% to €1.67 and capping a weekly rout of more than 27%. The move came despite a flurry of positive developments — a formalised partnership for a Scottish green hydrogen project, £86.5 million in government backing for factory automation, and an upgraded revenue outlook. The market, however, fixed its attention on the timeline for turning those plans into hard cash.

The Friday slide was led by a fresh note from Goldman Sachs. The bank reaffirmed its “Sell” recommendation on the hydrogen electrolyser maker and raised its price target only modestly, from 55 to 63 pence — a level still well below the current share price in either currency. Goldman’s core message: ITM Power remains fundamentally overvalued and will struggle to reach profitability in the near term. That assessment outweighed the operational milestones the company had flagged in the preceding days.

ITM Power was not alone in the sell-off. Ballard Power Systems cratered 19% on the same day, while Plug Power fell roughly 12%. Sentiment across the sector soured further after Clean Power Hydrogen (CPH2) reported irreparable damage to a pilot electrolyser unit, suspended its shares, and announced a strategic pivot. The microcap news amplified existing wariness about technology risk and commercial readiness in the hydrogen space.

Technical factors added to the pressure. ITM Power had been added to the MSCI UK Small Cap Index at the end of May, drawing in hedge funds and arbitrageurs ahead of the rebalancing. Once the index change took effect, those positions were unwound aggressively. The stock dropped 26% in the seven days following the index adjustment, with momentum traders piling on. The relative strength index has now fallen to 42.8, signalling that buying momentum has cooled sharply.

At the heart of the valuation debate sits the Cromarty project in Scotland, a joint venture with Protium Green Solutions. The planned facility will house 15 megawatts of electrolyser capacity, capable of producing roughly seven tonnes of green hydrogen per day. ITM Power is supplying the technology; Protium handles power procurement and offtake. The catch is that a final investment decision is not expected until December 2026. Until then, the partnership generates no meaningful revenue. The market punished that distant pay-off, turning what should have been a positive announcement into a trigger for profit-taking.

That profit-taking came on the heels of an extraordinary run. The stock hit a 52-week high of €2.58 at the end of May, meaning even after Friday’s rout it still trades nearly 130% higher year-to-date. The 52-week low of €0.65 is a distant memory, but the retreat from the peak now stands at 34% — a steep correction by any measure.

Operationally, ITM Power has made tangible progress. It received roughly £86.5 million in government funding to automate its Sheffield factory and develop the next-generation “Chronos” electrolyser platform. Management lifted its revenue guidance for the 2026 financial year to between £40 million and £43 million. The company’s cash position stands at around $198 million, giving it plenty of runway to scale production while it continues to post net losses.

The technical picture, however, is getting tight. The 50-day moving average sits at €1.56, providing a critical support level just 6.6% below Friday’s close. If the stock breaks below that line, the next leg of selling could accelerate. Until the Cromarty final investment decision arrives — and with it the promise of real revenues — the burden of proof remains squarely on management to show that today’s agreements translate into tomorrow’s earnings.