ITM Power Tests Critical Support as Macro Data and Project Timelines Compete for Attention

Hydrogen equipment maker ITM Power has fallen 21% from its May high, trading below its 50-day moving average. Analysts are divided, and upcoming UK CPI and BoE data may shape near-term direction.

Britain’s hydrogen equipment maker has seen its stock more than double since January, yet the past month has wiped out roughly a fifth of those gains. Shares closed at €1.48 on Friday, nearly 21% below the level 30 days earlier, with no fresh corporate announcement to blame for the retreat.

The trigger, instead, has been a reassessment of valuation after an extraordinary rally. The stock hit a year-to-date high of €2.58 in late May, then reversed course. The move has pushed ITM Power below its 50-day moving average of €1.64 — a technical threshold that traders now watch closely. A swift recovery above that line would stabilise the near-term picture; failure to reclaim it could deepen the pullback.

The 200-day moving average still sits at €1.01, well below the current price, so the broader uptrend remains intact. The relative strength index has dropped to 39.5, but that is not yet deep enough to signal oversold territory. With annualised 30-day volatility near 96%, violent swings in either direction are par for the course.

Operationally, the company’s most recent concrete news dates to June 3, when it deepened its partnership with Protium Green Solutions. Together they are developing the Cromarty hydrogen project in the Scottish Highlands, a 15-megawatt electrolysis plant capable of producing roughly seven tonnes of green hydrogen per day. Protium will handle power procurement and offtake. The final investment decision is expected by December 2026, meaning no revenue will flow from the project until then. Yet the venture demonstrates how ITM Power intends to scale its technology commercially.

Analyst opinions remain sharply divided. Goldman Sachs reiterated its sell rating on June 5 with a price target of just 63 pence, while Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to buy on April 29 and set a target of €1.70. The broader consensus compiled by data services tilts toward a buy recommendation, but the unusually wide spread reflects the market’s uncertainty about how to value a hydrogen equipment supplier whose biggest projects are still years from realisation.

The coming days could provide a macro trigger that reshapes the short-term outlook. On June 17 the Office for National Statistics publishes UK consumer price data, and the following day the Bank of England announces its latest monetary policy decision. Both releases carry indirect but real significance for hydrogen stocks: capital-intensive infrastructure projects are highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations. Lower inflation or a dovish BoE stance could revive the sector’s momentum; a surprise upside in prices would prolong the pressure on growth-oriented names like ITM Power.

Without its own near-term newsflow, the stock is now largely at the mercy of macro data and technical positioning. The next clear corporate milestone is the Cromarty final investment decision in December — a test of patience for anyone betting that the hydrogen story will eventually deliver.