ITM Power Stock: A Volatile June Hinges on Macro Data and a £46.5m Government Grant

ITM Power's stock has surged 110% YTD but remains 41% below its peak with 98% volatility. Key catalysts: a £46.5m UK grant decision and upcoming PMI data that could drive the next move.

ITM Power has delivered a 110% year-to-date gain, yet the stock sits 41% below its late-May peak and swings with an annualised 30-day volatility of nearly 98%. The reason for this schizophrenic behaviour is a pair of near-term catalysts that could either fuel the next leg higher or reignite the selling pressure.

Friday's 5.67% pop to €1.53 was a tentative reaction to progress on the most tangible of these: a £46.5m grant from the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. The money is earmarked for the company’s new Chronos electrolyser platform, and the government’s approval process is expected to conclude before the end of June. The grant is part of a larger public package totalling £86.5m, which includes contributions from Great British Energy. That funding will underwrite a gigawatt-scale manufacturing line at ITM’s existing Sheffield site, with commercial operations targeted for 2028.

Beyond the grant decision, the immediate focus shifts to macroeconomic data. On Monday 23 June, S&P Global releases its flash PMI readings for the UK, Germany, the eurozone and the US. ITM Power’s electrolysers are a play on industrial decarbonisation budgets, so the UK and eurozone manufacturing numbers carry particular weight. A better-than-expected set of prints would support capital spending appetite across the clean-tech space; disappointments would likely amplify the pressure on cash-hungry growth stocks.

The macro backdrop remains challenging. The Bank of England held its benchmark rate at 3.75% on 18 June, keeping financing costs elevated for long-duration projects. That dynamic continues to weigh on the valuations of hydrogen and other capital-intensive technology plays.

Company-specific news flow has been sparse since a 3 June partnership announcement on building industrial hydrogen plants in the UK. No quarterly report or shareholder meeting is imminent, leaving price action to be driven entirely by sector sentiment and macro signals.

From a technical perspective, the recent rebound has yet to reclaim key levels. The stock closed Friday at €1.53, roughly 11% below its 50-day moving average of €1.72 – a level that now acts as the first meaningful resistance. The 200-day average at €1.03 provides support below. The relative strength index stands at 43.6, indicating neither oversold nor overbought territory, which leaves room for sharp moves in either direction.

If the £46.5m grant is formally signed in June, it will provide immediate clarity on the financing of the Chronos line. If the month closes without an update, market uncertainty is likely to spike. Monday's PMI release will be the first test of whether Friday's bounce has staying power or is merely a brief reprieve.