ITM Power’s Trinity of Growth Paths Fails to Shield It From a 27% Weekly Tumble

ITM Power shares drop 26% in a week despite £40M state investment and new partnerships; defence fuel project with Rheinmetall and Chronos grant offer long-term catalysts.

The disconnect between corporate progress and market sentiment rarely looks starker than at ITM Power this week. On Wednesday, the electrolyser manufacturer announced a £40 million injection from state-owned Great British Energy and a strategic partnership with Protium Green Solutions. By Friday’s close, the shares had shed 14.45% in a single day and 26.75% over the seven trading sessions. The stock now trades at €1.68, roughly 35% below its late-May peak, and daily swings have pushed annualised volatility past 100%. Yet for all the selling pressure, the year-to-date gain still stands at 131%.

From defence fuels to Scottish hydrogen

One of the less obvious pillars of ITM’s near-term opportunity lies in a collaboration with Rheinmetall. The Giga-PtX project envisions a network of hundreds of decentralised plants across Europe, each capable of producing 5,000 to 7,000 tonnes of synthetic fuel annually from electrolysis capacity of up to 50 megawatts. The customer: NATO armed forces. While no immediate revenue jump is baked into forecasts, the defence link could unlock long-term procurement contracts and political backing that pure industrial projects sometimes lack.

That industrial pipeline is thickening, too. The new partnership with Protium Green Solutions targets multiple developments across Britain, starting with the Cromarty project in Scotland. A 15-megawatt electrolyser there will churn out roughly seven tonnes of green hydrogen per day and create about 30 local jobs. Protium takes responsibility for power procurement, permits, downstream infrastructure and hydrogen distribution; ITM can supply the electrolyser and, through its Hydropulse build-own-operate subsidiary, potentially step into a larger operational role. The final investment decision on Cromarty is pencilled in for December 2026. Protium’s broader portfolio includes the South Tees Net Zero project, the HAR2 and HAR3 schemes, and unsubsidised developments — giving ITM a diverse funnel of potential orders.

Chronos and the state’s big bet

The biggest single catalyst, however, remains the Chronos programme in Sheffield. ITM is awaiting clearance from the Competition and Markets Authority for a £46.5 million grant that forms part of a larger £86.5 million support package. The money will fund an automated production line for the next-generation Chronos stack, which delivers 2.5 megawatts per unit — roughly three times the output of its predecessor — while slashing capital expenditure by 40% and floor space requirements by half. Sheffield’s target capacity is one gigawatt per year, with the company spending £120 million of its own money to get there by 2028.

Great British Energy’s £40 million equity injection bought just under 72 million shares, making the state-owned group ITM’s second-largest shareholder. The cash infusion also allowed management to lift its year-end net liquidity forecast to a range of £210–215 million, up from the previous guidance of £170–175 million.

Financial traction — but still burning cash

The operating metrics are improving. Revenue in the first half of fiscal 2026 reached £18 million, and the full-year forecast now stands at £40–43 million, a 35% year-on-year increase. The order book totals £152 million, of which 71% is considered profitable — a more meaningful quality metric than the headline figure. The EBITDA loss narrowed to £11.9 million in the first half from £16.8 million a year earlier, though the company continues to guide for a full-year deficit of £27–29 million.

Analysts are starting to take notice. Jefferies raised its price target to 200 pence, while Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight, projecting an EBITDA break-even in fiscal 2028 — provided ITM books roughly 200 megawatts of new orders. That upgrade marks the first positive call on a British hydrogen company since 2021.

June’s make-or-break moments

Three critical decision points converge this month: the CMA verdict on the Chronos grant, the outcome of the HAR2 allocation round, and Uniper’s final investment decision on its own hydrogen project. All will shape whether the strategic momentum — from defence, industrial partnerships and state backing — translates into the order flow, factory utilisation and margins that the market is demanding. The annual results due on 15 September 2026 will provide the next hard check on that translation. For now, ITM Power has the narrative; it needs the numbers to catch up.