ITM Power's Project Momentum and State Funding Can't Halt a Technical Retreat Below Key Levels

ITM Power secures £86.5M in state grants and strategic deals, but shares fall 14.7% in 30 days amid hydrogen sector sell-off, trading near €1.33.

The contrast could hardly be starker. ITM Power has secured £86.5 million in government backing for its gigawatt-scale electrolyser line, cemented a strategic partnership with Rheinmetall, and advanced a major green hydrogen project in Scotland — yet the stock keeps slipping. After breaking below its 100-day moving average of €1.34 earlier this week, the shares closed at €1.30 on Tuesday before recovering slightly to €1.33, a daily gain of 2.31%. The technical damage, however, has already been done.

Over the past 30 days the stock has shed 14.7%, leaving it almost 50% below the 52-week high of €2.58 reached on 29 May. The monthly decline has pushed the relative strength index to 39.6, indicating cooling momentum but not yet oversold territory. Annualised 30-day volatility stands at 105.58%, underscoring the nervous trading that has gripped the hydrogen sector in recent weeks. Market observers speak of a broad-based sell-off that has caught even well-funded players like ITM Power.

The sell-off appears driven by profit-taking and sector consolidation rather than any deterioration in the company's fundamentals. On 9 July, the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero formally confirmed a £46.5 million grant for ITM Power's Chronos automated manufacturing line in Sheffield, which will ultimately produce 1 GW of electrolyser stacks per year. That sum is supplemented by a £40 million equity injection from Great British Energy, first pledged in April. Together, the two tranches bring ITM Power's cash position to around £197.8 million, according to its latest interim report, and the company has already reduced its EBITDA losses.

Beyond the factory floor, commercial momentum is building. ITM Power and Protium have formed a strategic partnership to develop and operate industrial-scale green hydrogen plants in the UK, starting with the Cromarty project in Scotland. That 15 MW facility is designed to deliver roughly seven tonnes of green hydrogen per day at peak output, with a final investment decision targeted for December 2026. Meanwhile, the collaboration with Rheinmetall, launched in April under the "Giga PtX" banner, targets large-scale industrial hydrogen solutions and is seen by analysts as a potential anchor for future revenues.

Analyst sentiment remains broadly positive, with the majority still rating the stock a buy. Yet the market is currently rewarding near-term cash flow and signed contracts over long-term project potential. The next major catalyst for a reassessment will come on 12 August, when ITM Power publishes its next set of results.

For now, the divergence between strong fundamentals and a weakening chart tells its own story. The state grants are funding the factory of the future, but investors are waiting to see those automated lines actually produce orders.