ITM Power's Defining June: Three Catalysts Poised to Validate a 164% Rally

ITM Power's stock surges 164% as the electrolyser maker awaits CMA grant clearance, a final investment decision on its next-gen Chronos stack, and the UK's HAR2 hydrogen auction outcome.

The British electrolyser manufacturer heads into a month that could determine whether its recent share price surge is a speculative fluke or the beginning of a genuine turnaround. With a government grant under regulatory review, a pivotal investment decision on next-generation hardware, and the outcome of a major hydrogen auction all due before July, the stakes could hardly be higher.

A Window of Validation

Sheffield-based ITM Power has already seen its London-listed stock more than double over the past three months, climbing 164% to current levels around 188.70 pence. That outperformance — ahead of peers such as Ballard Power (+163%), Plug Power (+105%) and NEL ASA (+70%) — reflects what analysts describe as a selective revaluation. Investors, they argue, are beginning to distinguish sharply between companies with proven delivery capability and those still trading on promises alone.

The market now expects the operational proof points to follow. The first arrived at the World Hydrogen Summit in Rotterdam, where the REFHYNE-2 project scooped both the Clean Hydrogen Project Award and the Industrial Application Award. The 100MW proton-exchange membrane electrolyser, built at Shell’s Energy and Chemicals Park in Germany, will produce up to 44,000 kilograms of green hydrogen daily from 2027. For ITM Power, the recognition came at exactly the right moment.

The £46.5m Pivot

At the core of June’s agenda sits a government investment grant worth £46.5 million, offered by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero but still subject to clearance from the Competition and Markets Authority. The CMA is expected to deliver its final verdict this month. The grant forms part of a wider £86.5 million support package for the company’s automated production line at its Sheffield factory, where ITM Power plans to manufacture its new Chronos PEM stacks.

The company has already secured £40 million in direct equity from Great British Energy, which bought nearly 72 million shares to become the second-largest shareholder. ITM Power has committed a total of £120 million to the Sheffield site, targeting a nameplate capacity of one gigawatt by 2028.

Chronos is designed to replace the current Trident platform. The new system generates three times the power output of its predecessor, costs 40% less to produce, and occupies half the floor space. Internally, the number of components has been cut by 50%, while power density doubles to 2.5 megawatts per square metre. Crucially, the factory will switch from manual assembly to automated production of catalyst-coated membranes — a step the company sees as essential for reaching industrial scale.

Management has indicated that the final investment decision for Chronos will be taken immediately after the grant receives the CMA’s go-ahead.

Three Lines of Sight

Alongside the grant decision, investors are tracking two other catalysts. The second round of the UK’s Hydrogen Allocation Programme, HAR2, is expected to update its shortlist during June. The round has capacity for up to 875MW, and 27 projects are currently on the slate. ITM Power has already been named preferred supplier for two HAR2 projects — one large, one smaller — though both are conditional on final investment decisions by their developers.

A separate opportunity is the Humber H2ub project run by Uniper at Killingholme. ITM Power is lined up to deliver six 20MW POSEIDON modules for the first 120MW phase, with commissioning targeted for 2029. The site could eventually expand beyond 200MW.

In addition, the half-yearly MSCI index review may trigger institutional portfolio shifts that could affect the stock.

Numbers That Still Tell a Story

After the Great British Energy injection, ITM Power lifted its net liquidity forecast for the 2026 financial year to between £210 million and £215 million, up from an earlier range of £170 million to £175 million. Revenue guidance stands at £40 million to £43 million for the full year — an increase of roughly 35% year-on-year, led by a record first-half haul of £18 million.

The adjusted EBITDA deficit narrowed from £16.8 million to £11.9 million in the first six months, though the full-year loss is still projected at £27 million to £29 million. The pre-tax loss widened to £45.4 million. The order book, however, has grown to £152 million, and the company reports that 71% of those contracts are now profitable. The backlog for NEPTUNE V and POSEIDON modules is in active delivery.

Jefferies recently lifted its price target to 200 pence, while Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight — the first positive rating for a UK hydrogen company since 2021. The investment bank expects ITM Power to reach EBITDA breakeven in fiscal 2028, a year earlier than previously modelled, provided it books around 200MW of new orders.

The Road to September

ITM Power will report its full-year results on 15 September. By then, all three June decisions — the CMA verdict on the Chronos grant, the HAR2 allocation, and the Uniper final investment decision — should be known. For a company that has already delivered a 164% rally on promise, the next few weeks will test whether the substance matches the story.