ITM Power: Record Backing and Record Revenue Can’t Bridge the Confidence Gap

ITM Power reports record revenue and secures UK grants, but share price falls 16.67% MTD, breaching key moving averages amid sector rotation and technical weakness.

The numbers tell one story; the share price tells another. ITM Power has locked down £46.5m in UK government grants, topped up with £40m of equity from Great British Energy, and just reported a record half-year revenue of £18m. Yet the stock closed at €1.30, its lowest point in weeks, slicing through both the 50-day average of €1.68 and the 100-day average of €1.34. The month-to-date slide of 16.67% leaves the water?electrolyser specialist 49% below May’s 52-week high of €2.58.

Technical signal meets sector?wide chill

The break below the 100?day moving average is a warning that technicians take seriously, especially when the Relative Strength Index sits at 39.6 — still in neutral territory but drifting toward oversold. Annualised 30?day volatility of 105.58% underscores a jittery market. Meanwhile, the YTD gain of 79.19% remains intact, yet the momentum has clearly stalled. Market observers point to a broad rotation out of early?cycle hydrogen names, fuelled by profit?taking and a consolidating risk appetite that has so far overwhelmed the positive fundamental news.

Chronos funding secures the factory floor

The £86.5m injection, confirmed by the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero on 9 July 2026, will build an automated gigawatt?scale production line for the new Chronos electrolyser stack at ITM’s Sheffield site. Crucially, the company is leveraging its existing Trident platform to lower execution risk. With a cash position of roughly £197.8m after the latest inflows, the immediate financing question has been answered. The next question — whether new orders will materialise fast enough to sustain the revenue trajectory — remains open.

Order book quality improves, but conversion is key

ITM’s order book now stands at £152m, with the share of profitable contracts rising from 60% in April 2025 to 71%. That is a clear improvement in margin quality. But much of the pipeline is still awaiting final investment decisions. The Cromarty green?hydrogen project with Protium (15MW, final decision expected in the second half of 2026) and two German projects with Stablegrid Group (710MW combined) are both contingent on go?ahead signs that have not yet arrived. Any delay pushes revenue recognition further out and raises the risk that legacy low?margin contracts will continue to weigh on profitability — the company still forecasts an EBITDA loss of £27m to £29m for this financial year.

Rheinmetall and Berenberg: two different votes of confidence

Amid the technical noise, ITM’s strategic partnership with Rheinmetall — the “Giga PtX” project announced in April — offers a potential anchor for industrial?scale hydrogen deployments. That cooperation has yet to produce a material order, but it solidifies ITM’s position in a market where larger players like Plug Power are already competing hard. On the analyst front, Berenberg raised its price target from 110p to 200p, signalling a belief that the operational ramp can match the narrative. That bullish call stands in sharp contrast to the market’s current fixation on execution timelines and the broader sector consolidation.

Two inflection points ahead

The charts show near?term support around the 200?day average of €1.08, a level that has held since February’s low of €0.65. If that floor gives way, a retest of the February trough cannot be ruled out. The more likely catalyst for a reversal lies in the Cromarty and Stablegrid final investment decisions, both pencilled in for the second half of 2026. Positive outcomes would inject fresh volume into the order book and give the bull case a concrete second leg. Anything less would leave ITM Power reliant on a funding?backed story that the market, for now, is refusing to fully price in. The next scheduled check?point comes on 12 August, when the company releases its next set of financial results.