ITM Power: Hydrogen Stock Caught Between Chart Support and Geopolitical Hopes

ITM Power shares climb to €1.56 in a technical bounce after a 40% sell-off, but no fresh news or fundamental catalysts support the move. Geopolitical speculation and long-term project milestones remain in focus.

ITM Power shares have flickered back to life after a punishing sell-off, with the stock climbing to €1.56 in recent trading — a gain of roughly 5% on the day. But the catalyst is anything but clear. No fresh company news, no project pipeline updates. Instead, the move appears to be a textbook technical bounce from deeply oversold levels, following a stretch of relentless pressure that wiped more than 40% off the stock from its May high of €2.58.

Bargain hunters are stepping in, but the rally lacks the fundamental backing needed to sustain it. The year-to-date gain now stands at around 115%, a remarkable figure that masks the extreme volatility of recent weeks. On a monthly view, the shares are still down roughly 16%.

Geopolitical speculation has also lent a hand. Chatter surrounding a potential diplomatic breakthrough between the US and Iran — possibly culminating in a peace agreement as early as June 19 — has pushed crude prices lower. That dynamic has, in turn, shifted investor expectations around the short-term economics of the energy transition. A cheaper oil outlook often dampens near-term demand for green hydrogen, but the mere prospect of geopolitical easing has sparked a reassessment across the sector.

Broader industry developments continue irrespective of the noise. India’s Power Grid Corporation is advancing plans for a large transmission network to support hydrogen projects, while the European Commission is set to launch its Biomethane Mechanism on June 18, a program designed to bring regulatory certainty and scale to the European hydrogen market. These moves reinforce the structural backdrop for companies like ITM Power, even if the day-to-day share price remains a plaything of sentiment.

The most concrete catalyst for the company itself sits on the horizon: the final investment decision for the Cromarty project in Scotland, expected in December 2026. ITM Power is lined up to supply electrolysers with a 15-megawatt capacity, capable of producing up to seven tonnes of green hydrogen per day at peak output. If approved, the project would serve as a critical reference deal for the group’s European ambitions. The partnership with Protium, announced in early June, underpins the plan.

Until that milestone arrives, the stock is likely to swing between chart-driven rebounds and macro jitters. The 200-day moving average remains intact, keeping the long-term uptrend alive, but without fresh contract wins or operational updates, the day-to-day trajectory will be dictated by the ebb and flow of market mood rather than company fundamentals.