ITM Power Faces a June That Could Reshape the Hydrogen Landscape

ITM Power enters a pivotal month with its £120M Chronos decision, a surprise Rheinmetall defense deal, and a stock trading at 38x sales despite ongoing losses.

The calendar is turning against ITM Power. After a twelve-month rally that has sent its shares soaring some 400 percent, the Sheffield-based electrolyser manufacturer enters a month that will test whether the market’s enthusiasm is justified — or dangerously premature.

The Chronos Countdown

All eyes are on the final investment decision for Chronos, the company’s next-generation manufacturing line. The facility, designed to produce electrolysers with double the power density at significantly lower cost, carries a price tag of £120 million. ITM Power aims to have 1 GW of annual capacity online by 2028.

The financing is largely in place. Great British Energy is contributing £40 million through a strategic equity stake, while the Department for Energy Security is chipping in a £46.5 million grant. Together, those two commitments cover the bulk of the capital required.

CEO Dennis Schulz has more than just professional motivation to see Chronos succeed. He received a one-off grant of 1.3 million shares, vesting only if specific delivery targets tied to the project are met.

A Defence Angle No One Saw Coming

While Chronos dominates the near-term agenda, a longer-term strategic pivot is gathering momentum. ITM Power has struck a partnership with German defence contractor Rheinmetall, centred on the Giga-PtX project — a planned European network of decentralised synthetic fuel plants for NATO forces.

The scale is ambitious: several hundred sites across Europe, each with up to 50 MW of electrolysis capacity, capable of producing between 5,000 and 7,000 tonnes of e-fuel annually. The rollout begins in the UK.

The economics remain challenging. Synthetic diesel is expected to cost at least €2 per litre more than fossil diesel even by 2030. But Rheinmetall is betting that energy sovereignty in the defence sector commands a premium the commercial market cannot match. For ITM Power, it opens a demand channel that analysts had not previously factored into their models.

The Numbers Tell Two Stories

The financial picture is improving, though not yet profitable. ITM Power posted a record first-half revenue of £18 million, and management has lifted its full-year guidance to between £40 million and £43 million. The adjusted operating loss for the year ending 30 April 2026 is expected to come in at around £29 million to £30 million.

The order book stands at £152 million, with 71 percent of contracts now considered profitable — a stark contrast to the loss-making legacy deals that once weighed on the business. Cash reserves are healthy, estimated at between £198 million and £215 million at year-end, giving the company ample runway.

Valuation vs. Reality

Here is where the tension becomes acute. ITM Power trades at roughly 38 times sales — a punchy multiple for a company still burning cash. Eleven analysts cover the stock; seven rate it a buy. Yet the average price target sits at 101 pence, well below the current share price near the 52-week high of 166.50 pence. A separate consensus puts the mean target even lower, at 84.60 pence — some 45 percent below where the stock closed recently at 154.80 pence.

The chart suggests near-term support at 130 pence. If Chronos gets the green light and government funds flow, the rally has fundamental backing. If the decision is delayed or disappoints, the gap between market price and analyst expectations could narrow quickly — and not in the direction shareholders would prefer.

What Else Hangs in June

Beyond Chronos, another catalyst looms. The government’s second hydrogen allocation round, HAR2, has pre-selected 27 projects totalling 765 MW. ITM Power is involved through Uniper’s 120 MW Humber H2ub project. Formal contract awards would directly bolster the pipeline and provide further validation of the company’s technology.

For ITM Power, June is not just another month. It is the moment when promises meet delivery — and the market will be watching closely to see which side of that equation prevails.