ITM Power at an Inflection: Revenue Guidance Jumps 35% as Hydrogen Projects Move Toward Final Investment

ITM Power shares surged 5.76% to 180p after raising FY2026 revenue guidance 35% to £40-43M, supported by £1.3B UK hydrogen funding and £46.5M Chronos grant, narrowing EBITDA losses.

ITM Power's stock has been on a tear, and the numbers behind the rally suggest the underlying business is finally catching up with the share price. The hydrogen electrolyser specialist saw its shares close at 180 pence in London on 26 May, up 5.76%, after touching a 52-week high of 189.40 pence during the session. In Frankfurt, the stock added 0.67% to trade at €2.10, giving a market capitalisation of roughly £1.24 billion.

The catalyst was a double dose of good news: a sharp upward revision to revenue guidance and a fresh injection of government support that cuts across the entire UK hydrogen value chain.

Revenue Upgrade Signals Operational Turnaround

ITM now expects full-year revenue for fiscal 2026 of £40 million to £43 million, a 35% increase from the prior year. The first half already delivered a record £18 million in turnover. While the company remains loss-making, the adjusted EBITDA deficit narrowed sharply from £16.8 million to £11.9 million, and the order book stands at £152 million – with 71% of contracts now considered profitable. That marks a clear departure from the legacy projects that previously weighed on margins.

The revenue upgrade was underpinned by a €1.3 billion UK-wide state support package for green hydrogen infrastructure, alongside specific grants for ITM’s own manufacturing expansion. The result is a business that looks increasingly viable as it moves beyond the pilot phase.

Chronos: The Technology That Changes the Math

At the heart of the growth story is Chronos, ITM’s next-generation electrolyser stack. The UK government’s Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has awarded a £46.5 million grant for the programme, while Great British Energy is injecting £40 million in strategic equity. The funding will help build a large-scale UK manufacturing line capable of producing 2 MW modules, slashing unit costs by 40% and raising annual capacity to one gigawatt.

A final investment decision on Chronos is expected in June 2026. That deadline gives the market a clear milestone against which to measure execution.

Project Decisions Pile Up

Beyond Chronos, two other decisions are looming. The results of the UK’s Hydrogen Allocation Round 2 (HAR2) are due shortly, and Uniper’s Humber H2ub project in Killingholme is edging towards a final investment decision this year. ITM is contracted to supply six 20 MW Poseidon modules for the first 120 MW phase, with commissioning slated for 2029. The site could later expand beyond 200 MW.

A positive outcome on either front would reinforce demand for larger-scale systems and buttress the recent optimism around the stock.

Rheinmetall Opens a Defence-Energy Link

ITM is also tapping a new addressable market through its collaboration with Rheinmetall on the Giga PtX initiative. The project aims to build hundreds of decentralised plants producing synthetic fuels for NATO forces across Europe. Each site can host up to 50 MW of electrolysis capacity and generate 5,000–7,000 tonnes of e-fuel annually. The initial focus is on the UK, extending ITM’s reach beyond conventional industrial hydrogen into energy security and defence.

Analyst Sentiment Turns Constructive

Jefferies recently lifted its price target from 115p to 200p, retaining a Buy rating on higher earnings expectations and lower discount rates. Of the analysts covering the stock, seven now recommend buying, four say hold, and only one is a seller. Morgan Stanley, meanwhile, forecasts ITM will reach EBITDA breakeven in fiscal 2028 – a year earlier than previously thought – provided it books around 200 MW of new orders.

The stock has moved well above its 50-day moving average of $1.50 and its 200-day of $1.10. The 52-week low stands at 46p, highlighting the extent of the recovery. With nearly £200 million in cash and no debt, analysts see no urgent need for a capital raise this decade.

What’s Next

The next hard date on the calendar is 15 September 2026, when ITM reports full-year results. By then, the Chronos investment decision, HAR2 allocations, and Uniper’s go-ahead could all have been resolved. Each carries the potential to accelerate the operational turnaround that the market is now pricing in.