ITM Power: A Macro Reality Check and a £46.5m Ruling Put the Rally on Trial

This week's PMI data and BoE rate stance test ITM Power's bounce, but upcoming CMA grant ruling, HAR2 results, and Uniper FID could drive a narrative shift for the hydrogen stock.

The coming days will test whether last week’s bounce in ITM Power shares has genuine legs — or whether it was merely a short-lived reprieve in a volatile spell. Monday’s flash PMI readings from S&P Global, covering the UK, the eurozone and the US, will provide an early directional clue. A stronger-than-expected print would signal that industrial investment budgets — and with them, demand for green hydrogen electrolysers — remain intact. Disappointing numbers, by contrast, would renew pressure on the cash-intensive clean-tech space.

The Bank of England added its own weight to the macro picture last Wednesday, holding its key rate at 3.75%. For growth stocks like ITM Power, higher-for-longer borrowing costs complicate project financing and compress the present value of distant cash flows. Until the macro headwinds ease, the stock remains hostage to sentiment swings.

Yet beneath the surface, a set of company-specific catalysts threatens to shift the narrative entirely. This month alone, three binary decisions loom. The UK Competition and Markets Authority is due to rule on a £46.5 million grant for ITM’s Chronos production line. Separately, the results of the second Hydrogen Allocation Round (HAR2) are expected imminently, while Uniper edges closer to a final investment decision on the Humber H2ub project, which would use six 20MW Poseidon modules. Any of these could unlock the next leg of the story.

The strategic partnership with Protium Green Solutions adds medium-term ballast. The two companies are jointly developing industrial-scale green hydrogen plants across Britain, anchored by the Cromarty pilot in Scotland, which already secured funding in the first HAR round. ITM supplies the electrolysers; Protium handles power procurement, permitting and offtake. A final investment decision is pencilled in for December 2026.

Operationally, ITM delivered a record first half, posting £18 million in revenue and lifting its full-year guidance to between £40 million and £43 million. A £40 million strategic investment from Great British Energy reinforced the balance sheet. Jefferies responded by raising its price target from 115 to 200 pence, maintaining a Buy rating. Morgan Stanley now expects EBITDA breakeven in the 2028 fiscal year, one year earlier than previously forecast. The lone bear among the 12 analysts covering the stock remains Goldman Sachs, with a 63-pence target.

Friday’s close of €1.53 represented a near-6% gain on the day, but the stock still sits 41% below its 52-week high struck on May 29. The 50-day moving average of €1.72 marks the next meaningful resistance level, while the relative strength index at 43.6 leaves room for further upside without being oversold. With annualised 30-day volatility hovering around 98%, sharp swings in either direction remain the norm.

ITM Power’s recent trajectory reflects a tug-of-war between macro gravity and policy-driven optionality. The next few weeks — especially the CMA decision and the HAR2 outcome — will determine whether the year-to-date gain of more than 110% can be defended, or whether the macro headwinds force a retrenchment. For now, the stock’s fate rests as much on spreadsheets in Whitehall as on the PMI data due out Monday.