ITM Power: A Director's Bet and a Solar Green Light — Yet the Stock Keeps Dropping

ITM Power stock slides despite UK solar farm greenlight and insider buying, as investor skepticism over contract conversions and technical pressure outweigh policy tailwinds.

The market is sending mixed signals about ITM Power, where positive developments — a government-backed solar approval and a director's six-figure share purchase — have failed to arrest the stock's slide. Shares in the Sheffield-based electrolyser maker closed at €1.36 on Wednesday, down 6.6% from the prior session, and have now lost nearly half their value since hitting a 52-week high of €2.58 on 29 May.

The latest catalyst that ought to have been supportive was UK Energy Secretary Ed Miliband's green light for the One Earth Solar Farm, a project capable of powering roughly 200,000 homes. Since July last year, London has waved through 30 large-scale renewable schemes. More cheap green electricity is a prerequisite for green hydrogen production, making ITM Power a natural beneficiary on the surface. Yet the stock barely registered the news, ending Wednesday sharply lower before eking out a 1.17% recovery to €1.38 on Thursday.

That disconnect between policy tailwinds and share price performance highlights a deeper scepticism among investors. The central question is whether ITM Power can turn its pipeline of letters of intent into binding, revenue-generating contracts. Until it does, even sector-friendly announcements appear powerless to lift the equity.

Insider buying as a vote of confidence

One party who clearly remains bullish is non-executive director Warren East. The former Rolls-Royce chief bought 172,000 shares on 4 July, a transaction disclosed to the London Stock Exchange three days later. Insider purchases are often interpreted by analysts as a signal that management sees long-term value, particularly during a period when the company is attempting to transition from a research-oriented business to a series manufacturer.

The buy has done little to stem the tide. On a 30-day view, the stock is down 10.75%, and over the past week it has fallen 5.87%. The annualised 30-day volatility stands at 107.31% — a stark reminder of the risks inherent in the hydrogen technology space.

Chart signals and technical pressure

Technically, the picture remains fragile. The share price is now 21.47% below its 50-day moving average of €1.73, though it still sits comfortably above the 200-day average of €1.07. The relative strength index on a 14-day basis reads 42.1, a neutral reading that gives little directional clue. The earlier primary source cited an RSI of 42.9 and a 20.27% deviation from the 50-day line — minor differences that reflect slightly different closing data points but do not alter the subdued tone.

Support lies at €1.32, a level that could be tested if the next major catalyst disappoints.

The subsidy bottleneck and the road to commercial scale

Beyond the chart, the stock is caught between two operational milestones that are progressing at different speeds. On the positive side, first-half revenue hit a record £18m, and the order book has swelled to £152m, with management claiming a rising share of profitable contracts. The partnership with Rheinmetall on the Giga PtX project for synthetic fuels in defence and industry continues to attract analyst attention. Berenberg recently lifted its price target on ITM Power to 200p (roughly €2.35), citing expansion into new end-markets.

But a critical piece of the funding puzzle remains unresolved. The company is awaiting a UK government grant of £46.5m, part of a broader £86.5m package that also includes £40m already secured from Great British Energy. The Subsidy Advice Unit of the Competition and Markets Authority is still reviewing the grant. That decision is essential for the final investment go-ahead on ITM's automated "Chronos" production line in Sheffield. Until the CMA gives the nod, the project — and the scalability story that goes with it — remains in limbo.

What comes next

Two events are now firmly on the radar. The CMA's ruling on the subsidy will be the near-term trigger for the Chronos investment. Further out, the company will report its next quarterly results on 15 September 2026. That is when the market will demand hard evidence of new electrolyser orders, not just policy approvals or insider purchases.

For now, ITM Power embodies the tension between a supportive regulatory environment for renewables and investors' growing insistence on signed contracts. Even a director's £200,000-plus bet and a new solar farm approval have not been enough to break the stalemate. The stock may need one of those two upcoming catalysts to finally change the narrative.