ITM Power: £86.5M in State and Strategic Funding Fails to Halt a Weekly Rout of Nearly 25%

UK state backing and gigawatt-capacity electrolyser automation fail to halt sell-off as Protium partnership and June catalysts loom.

Less than a week after the UK government and Great British Energy (GBE) jointly pumped £86.5 million into ITM Power, the Sheffield-based electrolyser maker's shares have lost almost a quarter of their value. On Wednesday alone, the stock plunged 11.5% to €1.74, extending a sell-off that has erased gains from a rally that had taken the shares from a 52-week low of €0.65 to a high of €2.58 in just four months. The contradiction is stark: institutional money is piling in, yet the market is taking profits.

Two-Pronged State Backing with a Gigawatt Ambition

GBE, the state-backed energy company, took a 10.4% stake by investing £40 million in ITM Power. That sits alongside a separate £46.5 million grant from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ), earmarked to convert ITM’s Sheffield facility from manual assembly to fully automated production. The centrepiece of the investment is the Chronos electrolyser platform – a next-generation unit that delivers 2.5 MW per stack, roughly triple the power of its predecessor, at 40% lower capital cost and with a footprint that is 50% smaller. The automated line is designed to hit an annual capacity of 1 GW, a scale that analysts see as a decisive step toward commercial viability.

Protium Deal and the Cromarty Hydrogen Project

Amid the sell-off, ITM Power announced a strategic partnership with British hydrogen developer Protium Green Solutions. The first project is the Cromarty Hydrogen Project in the Scottish Highlands, a scheme that Protium recently acquired and that has already secured funding from the first round of the UK’s Hydrogen Allocation Round (HAR1). Under the deal, 15 MW of ITM electrolysers will produce around seven tonnes of green hydrogen daily, decarbonising industrial heat and power customers that lack a grid connection. The first phase is expected to create about 30 jobs and apprenticeship roles in the region.

The agreement goes beyond Cromarty. The two companies are exploring joint structures for future developments, including Protium’s South Tees Net Zero project and bids for HAR2 and HAR3. They are also considering the use of Hydropulse, ITM’s build-own-operate subsidiary for containerised hydrogen units, as well as direct asset acquisitions by Protium. A final investment decision on Cromarty is targeted for December 2026.

Analyst Divergence and Three June Catalysts

The valuation spread among analysts is unusually wide. Jefferies lifted its price target from 115 pence to 200 pence, maintaining a “Buy” rating. Morgan Stanley now expects EBITDA breakeven in fiscal 2028 – a year earlier than previously forecast – provided ITM books around 200 MW of new orders. Berenberg also stays at “Buy”, though it cut its target to 110 pence. UBS, at the other end, keeps a “Neutral” stance with a fair value of 60 pence.

That divergence reflects three crucial decisions all expected by the end of June: the government’s final investment decision on the Chronos automated line, the outcome of the second Hydrogen Allocation Round (HAR2), and the go-ahead from German energy giant Uniper on a separate project. Each could act as a major catalyst – or a disappointment.

Operational Progress and Cash Position

Behind the share price noise, ITM Power is showing improving fundamentals. First-half revenue for fiscal 2026 hit a record £18 million, and the full-year guidance has been raised to between £40 million and £43 million, a roughly 35% year-on-year increase. The order book stands at £152 million, of which 71% is considered profitable. The first-half EBITDA loss narrowed to £11.9 million from £16.8 million a year earlier, and the company expects a full-year loss of £27 million to £29 million. Thanks to the GBE capital injection, net liquidity guidance for the current fiscal year has been lifted to between £210 million and £215 million.

Retail Traders Bet on a Rebound

Despite the sharp decline – which included a 9.3% rout on 4 June – retail investors have been buying the dip. Interactive Investor data showed that on that day 63% of morning orders in ITM Power shares were purchases, making it one of the most actively traded stocks on British retail platforms. The buying frenzy suggests that many individual investors see the recent sell-off as an entry point ahead of the June catalysts.

All three pending decisions – Chronos, HAR2, and the DESNZ grant – will be resolved before ITM’s next scheduled results on 15 September. By then, the market will also have a better sense of whether the Protium partnership is translating into real order book expansion. For now, the stock remains caught between a government-backed bet on a high-tech future and the cold mathematics of a quarterly loss.