IREN's Texas Power Play: Sweetwater Live as Earnings Loom

IREN energizes 1.4 GW Texas campus ahead of Q3 earnings, pivoting from Bitcoin mining to AI cloud services with a $9.7B Microsoft contract.

The transformation of IREN from a Bitcoin miner into an AI infrastructure powerhouse has crossed a critical threshold. On May 1, electricity began flowing through the first phase of its massive Sweetwater campus in Texas, connecting 1.4 gigawatts of capacity to the ERCOT grid. The milestone arrives just days before the company reports its fiscal third-quarter earnings on May 7, giving investors a tangible proof point to weigh against mounting capital costs.

The timing is no coincidence. Co-CEO Daniel Roberts framed the on-schedule energization as evidence of disciplined execution — a message the market will scrutinize closely when IREN releases its Q3 results. Analysts expect revenue of roughly $220 million, up 48% from $148 million in the same period last year. But profitability tells a different story: the consensus calls for a loss of $0.22 per share, reversing the $0.11 profit reported a year ago.

That earnings squeeze stems directly from IREN's aggressive pivot. The company is pouring billions into building out AI data center infrastructure, with a particular focus on serving a landmark $9.7 billion contract with Microsoft. The tech giant plans to use IREN's facilities to run AI workloads on Nvidia's next-generation GB300 chips. The capital intensity of this buildout is compressing near-term margins, even as the top line surges.

The Numbers Behind the Transformation

The financial scale of IREN's ambition is staggering. Management is targeting $3.4 billion in annualized recurring revenue by the end of 2026. To get there, the company secured a $3.6 billion GPU financing facility at interest rates below 6%, complementing a cash reserve that now exceeds $3 billion. Those funds are flowing directly into expanding the Sweetwater campus and developing a newly secured 1.6-gigawatt data center site in Oklahoma.

On the earnings call Thursday, investors will be laser-focused on three key metrics: the buildout progress toward IREN's target of 150,000 GPUs, the pace of development at the Oklahoma campus, and the revenue split between AI cloud services and legacy Bitcoin mining. The company's shift toward recurring AI revenue is accelerating, and the market wants to see concrete numbers.

Wall Street's Mixed Signals

The stock market has already delivered its verdict on the Sweetwater news. Shares jumped 11% on Monday, May 4, following the announcement, and added another 9% on Tuesday to reach €42.30. Over the past twelve months, the stock has soared roughly 672%, reflecting the market's enthusiasm for IREN's AI pivot.

But institutional investors are sending conflicting signals. Artemis Investment Management trimmed its position recently, while Sanctuary Advisors added shares — notably on the same day the stock surged 11%. On Wall Street, Bernstein has been vocal in its praise, highlighting IREN's AI cloud buildout as superior to rivals like CoreWeave and Nebius. Cantor Fitzgerald maintains an "Overweight" rating, though it trimmed its price target to $61. The broader analyst consensus sits at roughly $73.

Freedom Capital strikes a more cautious tone, sticking with a "Hold" rating. The firm argues that IREN's full transformation into a diversified AI infrastructure provider will take time — a reality the upcoming earnings report is likely to underscore.

The Earnings Test

When IREN reports on Thursday, the headline numbers will tell only part of the story. Revenue of roughly $200 million to $220 million and a loss of around $0.20 per share are already baked into expectations. What matters more is the operational detail: how quickly is power coming online at Sweetwater? What is the GPU deployment timeline? And most critically, how fast is the Microsoft partnership translating into recurring revenue?

The Sweetwater campus, with its 1.4 gigawatts of capacity and room for hundreds of thousands of liquid-cooled GPUs, represents the physical embodiment of IREN's strategy. Its successful grid connection proves the company can execute on massive infrastructure projects. Now the market wants to see whether that execution can translate into the kind of revenue growth that justifies a near-700% stock rally.