IonQ’s $470 Million Backlog Lures Institutions Even as Short Sellers Circle

IonQ's revenue surged 755% but short interest is 24%. Institutions add positions as bears call valuation extreme. Quantum sector gets tailwind from CHIPS Act and Nvidia.

A quantum-computing stock that has more than quadrupled in a year is attracting two warring camps: institutional investors piling in and short sellers betting on a fall. IonQ closed the week at $63.54, up 7.9% in a single session and roughly 23% for the week, but the fight over its valuation is only intensifying.

Nearly 24% of IonQ’s outstanding shares are now sold short, an unusually high level that signals deep skepticism about a market capitalization approaching $23 billion. Bearish traders point to a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 193 based on the 2026 consensus revenue forecast of about $268 million. That multiple, they argue, cannot be sustained even for a hypergrowth name.

Yet the bears are betting against a company whose first-quarter revenue surged 755% year over year to $64.67 million, crushing analyst estimates of $49.75 million by roughly 30%. Management responded by lifting full-year guidance to a range of $265 million to $270 million. The net loss per share on a non-GAAP basis came in at $0.34, wider than anticipated, but the growth in remaining performance obligations (RPO) was staggering: RPO jumped 554% to $470 million, a sign that contracted revenue in the pipeline now exceeds the current year’s projected sales.

Institutional investors are taking notice. The most recent 13F filings reveal fresh positions by major money managers. Resona Asset Management opened a stake worth roughly $3.9 million with 87,015 shares. Handelsbanken Fonder AB increased its holding by 41.5% to 86,300 shares, valued at about $3.87 million. Banque Cantonale Vaudoise expanded its position by more than 873%, to 28,277 shares. In total, 41.42% of IonQ’s equity now sits with institutional holders — a clear vote of confidence in the long-term potential of quantum technology.

The broader sector is also getting a tailwind from Washington. Under the CHIPS Act, the U.S. government announced a $2 billion program for nine quantum firms. IBM secured the largest slice at $1 billion, while Rigetti and D-Wave each received $100 million. IonQ itself was not among the direct recipients, but the stock jumped more than 12% on the news as the entire industry benefited from the policy signal. Further boosting sentiment, Nvidia deepened its quantum push with open-source tools and new interconnect technology, reinforcing the ecosystem.

IonQ has not been idle on the corporate front. In Boulder, Colorado, it opened a 22,000-square-foot research center dedicated to quantum computing. Shareholders approved the multibillion-dollar acquisition of SkyWater Technology, a move that could integrate chip manufacturing capabilities. These strategic steps support the operational momentum evident in the quarterly numbers.

Technically, the stock’s short-term trend is bullish. The relative strength index sits at 69.21, approaching overbought territory but not yet flashing a sell signal. The 50-day moving average at $40.96 has generated a buy signal, and the 30-week exponential moving average holds as solid support. Of the 17 analysts covering IonQ, the majority rate the stock a “buy,” with a consensus price target of $68.63 and a wide range from $35 to $100.

Investors heading into the new trading week will watch whether IonQ can hold above the $60 mark. The next resistance level coincides with the average analyst target of $68.63. Should the shorts press their case, the 30-week EMA serves as the first line of defence. The broader quantum computing market is projected to reach $35 billion within a decade, and IonQ’s $470 million backlog suggests it is already converting potential into revenue. The question now is whether the stock’s price can keep pace with the commercial reality.