IonQ Investors Brush Off a $2 Billion Federal Snub, Pivoting to Defense and Chip Independence

IonQ shares jumped 12% as traders ignored missing federal subsidies, citing strong cash reserves, a $1.8B SkyWater acquisition, and growing commercial revenue.

The quantum computing market got a jolt of Washington cash this week, but the company many expected to be the biggest beneficiary walked away empty-handed. IonQ shares still surged more than 12% on Tuesday, climbing to an intraday high of $65.80 as traders piled in with nearly 53 million shares changing hands — well above the average daily volume of 38.32 million.

The US Commerce Department issued letters of intent worth $2.013 billion under the CHIPS Act to nine quantum-focused firms, including two foundries and seven computing companies. IBM landed roughly half the total, with a $1 billion allocation. Competitors D-Wave Quantum, Infleqtion, and Rigetti Computing also made the list. IonQ did not.

Analysts were quick to frame the omission as a strategic distinction rather than a blow. B. Riley noted that IonQ holds a robust $3.3 billion cash position and enjoys deep commercial and government engagement. The firm pointed to a recent Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency contract and the planned $1.8 billion acquisition of semiconductor manufacturer SkyWater Technology as evidence of a deliberate focus on defense and intelligence channels. "It's a distinction, not an affront," the bank said.

That thesis is backed by the company’s own commercial momentum. IonQ reported that roughly 60% of its first-quarter revenue came from non-US government commercial clients, with 35% generated internationally across more than 30 countries. Management has raised its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast to a range of $260 million to $270 million, signaling confidence in its independent growth path.

Shareholders approved the SkyWater takeover on May 8, with closing expected in the third quarter — though some analysts suggest it could slip into the second quarter. The acquisition gives IonQ a dedicated chip fabrication facility on American soil, freeing it from supply-chain dependencies that plague rivals reliant on external foundries.

The company’s progress is drawing strong analyst support. Of the 13 analysts covering the stock, the average 12-month price target stands at $67.64. Wedbush sees the shares reaching $75 with an outperform rating, while Jefferies is even more bullish at $85. Eleven analysts rate the stock a buy, with no sell recommendations — earning it a consensus of “strong buy.” One analyst’s highest target sits at $100.

IonQ’s management is set to make fresh appearances this week at the Reagan National Economic Forum, followed by the Mizuho Global Technology Conference in June. Investors will be watching for updates on SkyWater integration and further defense contracts — developments that could render the missing federal subsidies a footnote rather than a headline.