Investor Day Fails to Halt Circus SE's Steep Share Price Decline

Circus SE projects revenue to surge to €44-55M in 2025, a hundredfold increase, but shares are down 47% as most orders are non-binding pilots.

A recent investor day in Munich was intended to restore market confidence in Circus SE. Instead, the company's shares have continued to lose ground, now down approximately 47% since the start of the year. The financial projections presented for 2025 did little to counter the prevailing negative sentiment.

Ambitious Revenue Forecast Meets Current Reality

The company's outlook highlights a stark contrast. For 2025, Circus SE reported an operating loss of nearly €15 million against revenue of just €250,000. Management, however, is now forecasting a dramatic leap to between €44 million and €55 million for the current year. This projection, representing a hundredfold increase, is based on over 8,000 pre-orders with a theoretical potential value exceeding €1.6 billion.

A significant caveat underpins these figures: the majority of these projects are currently in pilot phases or are based on letters of intent, rather than binding delivery contracts.

Operational Pipeline Shows Promise, But Lacks Firm Orders

The operational pipeline is concrete in its development. The German Bundeswehr is deploying the CA-1 cooking robot in barracks, and the Ukrainian armed forces have signed an agreement for up to 25 systems. Retail giant REWE is testing the concept in a "Fresh & Smart" store in Düsseldorf-Heerdt, and Mercedes-Benz Gastronomie is confirmed as a customer for the Sindelfingen site starting summer 2026. On the production side, capacity for a four-digit unit volume is in place, with contract manufacturer Celestica having completed industrialization.

A key strategic advantage is a NATO certification obtained in August 2025, which enables participation in multinational procurement programs—a unique feature within the European AI robotics sector.

The critical question of when these pilot projects will translate into sustainable revenue streams remains unanswered for now.

Financing Secured Amid Ongoing Share Price Volatility

Shortly before the investor event, Circus SE raised around €1.67 million via the "Circus Robotics I" mini-bond to finance six CA-1 robots through a sale-and-leaseback arrangement. This involves a partnership with Finexity AG, which is expected to facilitate larger bond transactions in the eight-figure range in the future. By the end of 2025, approximately €30 million had already been invested by institutional investors.

In a move viewed by market observers as a commitment to achieving annual targets, CEO Nikolas Bullwinkel and members of the administrative board purchased company shares in March. This signal, however, has so far failed to stabilize the share price. Although the stock has recently recovered some ground—with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 78 and a price of €6.42, about 18% above its 52-week low—it remains roughly 51% below its 200-day moving average.

The extent to which the €44 million revenue forecast will be realized will become clear with the 2026 annual figures at the latest. The coming months will determine whether the tests with REWE and the Bundeswehr pilots pave the way for firm, large-scale orders.