International Momentum Fuels Anticipation for Deckers’ Quarterly Report

Deckers Outdoor US2435371073

As Deckers Outdoor prepares to release its third-quarter fiscal 2026 results, investor focus is squarely on the strength of its overseas operations. While analysts project a modest decline in earnings per share, they anticipate continued revenue growth, raising the question of whether robust international performance can offset the expected EPS contraction.

The consensus estimates for the quarter ending December 2025 point to diluted earnings per share in the range of $2.76 to $2.77. This represents a year-over-year decrease of approximately 7.7%. Revenue projections hover just below $1.87 billion, suggesting growth of about 2.6% compared to the same period last year. Notably, the Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates a slight potential for a positive surprise, with a probability of around +1.04%.

This outlook is supported by recent performance. In the preceding second quarter, Deckers surpassed market expectations, reporting EPS of $1.82 against a consensus of $1.58 and revenue of $1.43 billion versus an estimated $1.41 billion. Company leadership and market observers consistently highlight the dynamism of its international segment. The HOKA brand, in particular, is reportedly achieving double-digit growth in key EMEA markets such as Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, with China also demonstrating robust demand. The strategic push to establish a wholesale presence in new regions while simultaneously expanding direct-to-consumer sales aims to create a balanced long-term channel mix approaching 50/50.

The full-year fiscal 2026 guidance remains unchanged: Deckers is targeting revenue of approximately $5.35 billion. It expects HOKA to grow in the low double-digit percentage range and UGG to see low- to mid-single-digit growth. The forecast for gross margin stands at about 56%, with diluted EPS projected between $6.30 and $6.39 and an operating margin near 21.5%.

• Q3 EPS Consensus: $2.76–$2.77 (down ~7.7% year-over-year)
• Q3 Revenue Consensus: ~$1.866–$1.87 billion (up ~2.6% year-over-year)
• FY26 Outlook: Revenue ~$5.35 billion, EPS $6.30–$6.39

Analyst sentiment is predominantly favorable. Among 19 covering analysts, "Buy" ratings dominate, including a significant portion of strong buy recommendations. The median price target derived from 37 analysts implies an upside potential of roughly 10.8% from the closing price on January 21. The stock closed yesterday at $101.94, a level significantly below its 52-week high of $214.20, reflecting the considerable volatility experienced over the past year.

Investor Watchlist for the January 29 Earnings Release

Deckers is scheduled to publish its quarterly figures after the market closes on Thursday, January 29 (around 4:30 p.m. ET). The market's reaction will likely hinge on three critical factors:

1. International Expansion Details: Clarity on the sustainability of growth trends for HOKA and UGG in core international markets, along with updates on the evolution of the sales channel mix.
2. Margin Trajectory: Whether gross and operating margins remain aligned with the annual forecast or show signs of deviation.
3. Full-Year Guidance: Confirmation or adjustment of the existing fiscal 2026 outlook by management.

A better-than-expected EPS result, stronger margin performance, or more optimistic commentary on global expansion could bolster the equity's chances of advancing toward analyst targets. Conversely, should revenue or margin metrics disappoint, the shares may face renewed downward pressure.