Intel Stock Surges on Rare Double Upgrade as BofA Forecasts $6 Profit by 2030

BofA upgrades Intel from Underperform to Buy with a $135 target, citing server CPU and foundry growth; Google reportedly orders TPUs; stock jumps 9.5%.

Intel shares jumped nearly 9.5 percent to 101.70 euros after Bank of America delivered a surprise double upgrade, vaulting the chipmaker from "Underperform" straight to "Buy." The new price target of $135 per share marks a sharp increase from the previous $96, and reflects a fundamental reassessment of the company's earnings power.

Analyst Vivek Arya now expects Intel to generate adjusted earnings per share above $6 by 2030, roughly double the $3-to-$4 range he had previously modeled. The upgrade is built on two pillars: the server CPU business and the growing foundry operation. Arya estimates the total addressable market for server chips will reach $170 billion by the end of the decade, with Intel capturing more than $40 billion of that.

The foundry division, long a drag on profitability, is showing signs of life. Google has reportedly placed an order for more than three million tensor processing units (TPUs) to be manufactured by Intel Foundry starting in 2028. The contract has not been officially confirmed, but it is seen as a critical validation of Intel's manufacturing ambitions. Nvidia, meanwhile, is evaluating Intel's 18A process and advanced packaging technologies for future chips. Collaboration with Cadence Design Systems on the 14A node is also ramping up.

For all the strategic optimism, the foundry business remains a sinkhole in Intel's income statement. It generated $5.4 billion in revenue last quarter but recorded an operating loss of $2.44 billion. The scale of capital expenditure required to build out capacity is enormous, and the path to profitability is far from certain.

The stock has already sprinted 464 percent over the past twelve months, yet institutional investors remain conspicuously underweight. Only 16 percent of S&P 500 funds hold Intel shares, leaving significant room for new buyers if the turnaround story holds up. The stock trades about 20 percent above its 50-day moving average of 80.76 euros, a technical sign of sustained momentum, though it has retreated from its 52-week high of 114.60 euros.

Risks persist. ARM-based architectures are encroaching on Intel's traditional turf, and the global surge in AI capital spending is notoriously volatile. Execution on the 18A and 14A manufacturing nodes — the linchpins of the foundry strategy — will determine whether the double upgrade was a harbinger or a head fake.