Intel Shares Surge on Analyst Upgrades and Foundry Progress, All Eyes on July Earnings

Intel shares climb on HSBC and Cantor Fitzgerald price target hikes, 18A-P process enters risk production; Q2 results on July 23 will test turnaround.

Intel’s stock has clawed back much of its recent losses after two major banks dramatically raised their price targets, offering fresh validation for the chipmaker’s costly turnaround strategy. The shares ended Friday at €108.24, up 2.85%, on a day that also saw the company notch a crucial manufacturing milestone: the 18A-P process has entered risk production on schedule.

HSBC more than doubled its target for Intel to $200, citing a swelling order book and rising forecasts for server processors. Cantor Fitzgerald followed with a new $150 price objective, pointing to a surge in corporate spending on AI infrastructure and Intel’s growing role in advanced chip packaging. Rumors of new large tech clients have added to the building optimism.

Yet the summer looms as a pivotal test. Management will present second-quarter results on July 23, 2026, and the market is demanding concrete evidence that the IDM 2.0 foundry strategy is gaining traction. The first quarter saw the data center and AI segment post a 22% revenue gain, but the foundry business itself continues to bleed operating losses in the billions. A firm commitment from an external anchor customer for the 18A process remains the missing piece, and analysts expect volume production for such a client no earlier than late 2026.

The bullish case gathers momentum

Intel’s stock has already rewarded the narrative spectacularly. Since the start of the year, shares have climbed 222%, and on a 12-month basis the gain stands at 470% — a rally that has pushed the price well above its long-term average of €52.91. The recent pullback from the year’s high of €124.58 appears shallow in that context.

The company’s product pipeline is also drawing attention. Leaks suggest the incoming “Nova Lake-S” desktop series will feature models with up to 18 cores and a novel cache design aimed at boosting performance. Meanwhile, Intel has adjusted pricing on older models: the Core Ultra 7 270K Plus will now sell for $349, a move that balances production costs with intense competitive pressure.

Strategic alliances are being forged as well. Intel is building AI infrastructure alongside Foxconn, and even Nvidia has expressed interest in custom CPUs from the American chipmaker. Geopolitical tensions — and the resulting drive for supply-chain diversification away from Taiwan — play directly into Intel’s hands.

The risks that temper the rally

Despite the newfound analyst support, the average price target across the Street sits at just €86.09, a roughly 20% discount to the current level. That gap reflects persistent doubts about the foundry’s ability to turn promises into profit. The upcoming quarterly report will focus heavily on the gross margin, which management has guided toward around 39%. A miss on that front could trigger a sharp reversal.

Competitive threats are intensifying. Nvidia dominates the AI accelerator market, and AMD is making inroads in both server and PC processors. Short-term shortages of Intel’s own CPUs are also squeezing margins. The stock’s annualized volatility of 89% underscores the extreme nervousness surrounding the name.

Investors are effectively betting that Intel can transform a technology turnaround into financial reality. The risk production milestone on 18A-P proves the engineering is on track. Now all that matters is whether a major customer will sign on the dotted line — and whether the July 23 earnings call can deliver the numbers to match the narrative.