Intel's Seven-Day Sell-Off Exposes Multiple Fault Lines: AMD Overtakes in Data Center, Foundry Profits Pushed to 2027

Intel's shares drop 15% in worst weekly stretch as AMD surpasses it in data center revenue, foundry losses mount, and analyst views split on valuation.

Intel's stock has just endured its worst weekly stretch in months, shedding roughly 15% over seven consecutive sessions as a triple threat of bad news tore through the bull case that had propelled the shares up more than 180% since January. The shares changed hands near €94.45 in European trading, down about 2% on the day, following a 9.66% plunge in the U.S. listing that was triggered by a wave of profit-taking after Samsung's blockbuster quarterly results. The South Korean chip giant's earnings, while strong, prompted a sector-wide sell-off as investors used the positive headlines to lock in gains—a pattern that hit Intel especially hard given its extreme valuation run.

AMD Claims the Data Center Crown

The most symbolic blow landed in the data center, where AMD reported first-quarter revenue of $5.8 billion from chips sold to cloud and enterprise customers, eclipsing Intel's $5.1 billion for the first time ever. Intel's share of the server CPU market has contracted from 72.8% to 66.8% over the past year, a steady erosion that directly undermines the core thesis that the company would recapture ground in high-margin silicon. For a turnaround story that banked heavily on reclaiming data-center and AI leadership, the numbers amount to more than a quarterly miss—they question the narrative itself.

Foundry Progress, But Profits Still Distant

On the manufacturing side, Intel offered fresh evidence that its 18A node is advancing technically. At the VLSI Symposium, the company confirmed it had begun risk production of the enhanced 18A-P process, which delivers 9% more performance or 18% lower power consumption compared to the standard version. Development kits for the next-generation 14A node have already been sent to partners including SpaceX and Apple, and Intel secured orders for Google's Tensor Processing Units. Yet the gap between technical milestones and commercial results remains wide. Intel Foundry generated just $174 million in external customer revenue in the first quarter against an operating loss of $2.4 billion, and a broad customer ramp for 18A is not expected to produce meaningful profits until late 2026 or 2027. That timeline pushes the payoff further out than the market had priced into the stock's meteoric rise.

Analyst Divergence Adds Uncertainty

The sell-off has not shaken all believers. HSBC lifted its price target to $200 from $100, maintaining a buy rating on the strength of Intel's eventual foundry potential. Bank of America sees the stock at $160, while New Street Research targets $122. Yet the broader analyst consensus sits at €88.18, roughly 7% below the current share price, implying that even after this week's rout the average forecast does not view Intel as cheap. The split between a handful of long-term bulls and a cautious middle ground underscores how polarizing the stock has become. With a 30-day annualized volatility of 93.6%, Intel has morphed from a quiet value restructuring into a high-beta wager on foundry execution and competitive survival.

Chart Signals a Tenuous Floor

Technically, the stock is testing important levels. It now sits about 6.6% below its 50-day moving average of €102.15, though it remains 76.8% above its 200-day average of €53.98. The relative strength index at 42.1 points to fading momentum short of oversold territory. In the U.S., chart watchers are eyeing the $108 support level as a potential floor. The stock's 52-week range runs from €16.69 to €124.58, giving it a 23% gap from the current price to the year's high—a wide runway in either direction.

The Next Reckoning: July 23 Earnings

All eyes now turn to July 23, when Intel reports second-quarter results. Management has guided for revenue of up to $14.8 billion. A beat could quickly put a floor under the shares, while another miss might confirm that the correction has further to go. For a stock that has swung from extremes to extremes throughout 2026, the coming weeks will determine whether this week's sell-off was a healthy pause after an overheated rally or the beginning of a deeper repricing.