Intel’s Rally Enters a New Phase as Analysts Split Ahead of Earnings

Intel shares fell 22.7% from a 52-week high amid political backing, foundry losses, and AMD overtaking in data center revenue. All eyes on July 23 earnings.

Even after a blistering 372% rise over the past twelve months, Intel’s stock is feeling the heat. The shares shed 2.23% on Friday to close at €96.26, capping a seven-day losing streak that erased 11.77% in a single week. From the 52-week high of €124.58 reached on June 30, the stock has now pulled back 22.73%. Yet the year-to-date tally still shows a gain of 186.45%, a testament to the extraordinary forces — both political and operational — that have reshaped the narrative around the chipmaker.

The rally, however, is losing momentum just as Intel approaches its next quarterly report on July 23, when management will deliver results for the second quarter. Analysts are increasingly divided on where the stock goes from here, with expectations pinned on two make-or-break factors: the pace of the foundry ramp and the pricing power of Intel’s core processor business.

The Washington factor meets the foundry grind

A key driver of Intel’s dramatic run-up lies not in Silicon Valley but in Washington. In August 2025 the U.S. government took an approximately 10% stake in the company, and the White House has since leaned on other tech giants to direct their manufacturing business Intel’s way. Apple is said to have secured exemptions from 100% semiconductor tariffs in exchange for committing future chip production to Intel’s foundries, while Nvidia has poured roughly $5 billion into Intel-adjacent investments. These alliances give Intel’s “IDM 2.0” strategy real traction, yet the arrangement is inherently fragile: political backing can evaporate if manufacturing stumbles, and that risk appears lightly priced into the stock.

On the operational front, Intel lifted list prices on Xeon server chips and Core Ultra laptop processors during the third quarter, a move that typically signals demand outstripping supply. Lead times for certain components have stretched to 8–12 weeks. Management reported that server CPU revenue grew 20–25% in the last quarter, fueled by higher average selling prices. Structural tailwinds from “agentic AI” systems are also at play: configurations that once required one CPU for every eight GPUs are shifting to ratios as high as 4-to-1, a trend that benefits Intel’s core architecture even as its foundry division continues to post operating losses.

AMD delivers a symbolic blow

Competition, however, is intensifying. In the first quarter of 2026, AMD overtook Intel in data center revenue for the first time — a symbolic setback for a company selling a comeback story. AMD’s next-generation Zen-6 architecture, code-named “Venice” and built on a 2-nanometer process, is set for a major launch event on July 22–23, promising notable gains in energy efficiency that will increase pressure on Intel’s own 18A manufacturing process. Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers, who holds a neutral rating and a $110 price target, expects that AMD will continue to outpace Intel in the server CPU segment.

The chart reflects the growing uncertainty. Intel’s stock now trades just 6.40% below its 50-day moving average of €102.84, having fallen sharply from well above that level. The 200-day average, at €54.67, still provides a cushion of more than 76%, but the relative strength index of 42.9 indicates a return to neutral ground after weeks of annualized volatility of 91.61%.

Analysts split on the next leg

The divergence in Wall Street opinion is stark. Stifel’s Ruben Roy raised his price target on July 10 from $75 to $120 while maintaining a “Hold” rating. He sees the next move hinging on demand signals for server CPUs and delivery capacity for graphics chips, notably yields and volumes in the GPU business. Roy argues that the turnaround is already underway and that margin pressure should ease in coming quarters.

Wells Fargo’s Aaron Rakers, by contrast, keeps a neutral stance with the same $110 target, which sits just 0.78% above the current level. He flags specific milestones for investors: the ramp of the 18A process for Panther Lake chips, which could free up capacity on older Intel 7 and Intel 10 lines for server products, and the accelerated start of Coral Rapids to mid-2027 — a shift that appears to come at the expense of the Diamond Rapids project. On the foundry side, Rakers points to the upcoming 14A PDK v0.9 release this autumn as a critical step for customer development, though risk production for 14A remains a 2028 story.

The broader analyst consensus reads as a “Hold” with a composite target of $97.88. Of 49 analysts tracked, two rate the stock “Strong Buy,” 15 say “Buy,” 28 recommend “Hold,” and four advise “Sell.” Morgan Stanley downgraded from “Overweight” to “Underweight” in June, while Barclays lifted its target from $65 to $100 with a neutral rating, and Oppenheimer initiated coverage with “Outperform.”

The earnings test

All eyes are on the quarterly numbers due after the closing bell on July 23. The consensus calls for earnings per share of $0.19 on revenue of $14.4 billion. The range between Stifel’s bullish $120 target and Wells Fargo’s cautious $110 underscores how much hangs on management’s commentary during the conference call. Investors will be listening for updates on foundry customer wins, the trajectory of average processor prices, and — most critically — whether Intel can hold its pricing strategy without losing further ground to AMD.

The real proving ground, however, remains the high-volume production of the 18A process. The second half of 2026 is shaping up to be the decisive window in which Washington’s industrial bet either translates into technological leadership or proves far more expensive than anticipated. For now, Intel’s stock sits in a no-man’s land between political optimism and operational reality, waiting for the quarterly numbers to tip the scales.