Insiders Signal Confidence in Robotics Firm Amid Steep Share Decline

Circus AI robotics executives buy shares as stock falls 71%. The firm forecasts a 200x revenue surge by 2026, banking on robot deliveries and pilot projects with REWE and Bundeswehr.

While shares of Hamburg-based AI robotics company Circus have plunged to fresh annual lows, falling 71% from their yearly peak, company leadership appears undeterred. Senior executives have been actively purchasing stock, even as the firm maintains a revenue forecast projecting a two-hundredfold increase.

Leadership Purchases Amid Sustained Pressure

A notable pattern of insider buying has emerged. In late February, Dr. Jan-Christian Heins, Chairman of the Administrative Board of Circus, reported acquiring company shares at €7.26 each, with a total transaction volume of approximately €10,000. This followed several earlier purchases in late January and early February through an investment entity closely linked to the CEO.

These transactions, classified as directors' dealings, occurred during a period of continuous downward pressure on the stock, which eventually fell to €6.86. While such moves are factual events rather than guarantees of future performance, the repeated pattern of management-level acquisitions is striking, particularly against the backdrop of the company's current financial metrics.

Ambitious Financial Trajectory Faces Execution Test

The company's 2025 figures highlight its early-stage business model: €0.25 million in revenue contrasted with an operating loss of nearly €15 million. Management's projection for 2026, however, anticipates revenue between €44 million and €55 million. They also forecast an improved EBITDA, expected to be in the range of minus €6 million to minus €8 million.

This ambitious plan rests on two pillars: increased deliveries of the CA-1 cooking robot and a growing proportion of recurring software revenue from the CircusOS platform. The coming months will determine whether this strategy proves viable.

Pilot Projects with Major Partners Underway

The company has begun deploying its autonomous catering systems across several significant test fields. Since January, Circus has been supplying the German Bundeswehr under its "Circus Defence" label, with systems operating in selected barracks. A separate framework agreement is also in place with BRAVE1, a Ukrainian defense technology platform.

In the commercial sector, supermarket chain REWE is testing the system in an eight-month pilot project at stores in Düsseldorf. A decision on broader integration will follow an evaluation of customer feedback. Furthermore, starting in summer 2026, Circus is slated to supply the staff canteen at the Mercedes-Benz plant in Sindelfingen.

The company reports over 8,000 pre-orders with a theoretical total value exceeding €1.6 billion. A crucial caveat accompanies this figure: the conversion of these pre-orders into firm, paid contracts depends entirely on the outcomes of the ongoing pilot projects.

Funding Strategy and Future Capital Needs

To finance customer systems, Circus has partnered with MMV Leasing, a subsidiary of LBBW, with operations scheduled to commence in the first quarter of 2026. Concurrently, the company is exploring options for securing additional growth capital. The form of this capital—whether equity or debt—along with its scale and timing, remains unspecified.

The pilot phases in the upcoming months will reveal if the company's bold forecast is more than just an ambitious projection. Until then, the unresolved question of financing stands as the central risk to its further development.