Insider Buying and Kidney Drug Progress Offer Rare Positives for Bayer Amid a Mounting Legal Calendar

Bayer shares rose 1.58% to €35.95 after promising Kerendia trial results in non-diabetic CKD, but CEO warns 2026 Supreme Court glyphosate decision is 'business-critical' amid German headwinds.

Bayer shares ended last week at €35.95, up 1.58% on the day, but the stock remains in a tug-of-war between competing forces. While a promising clinical trial result for its kidney drug Kerendia has bolstered the pharma pipeline, the company is bracing for a US Supreme Court ruling in the summer of 2026 that CEO Bill Anderson has described as “business-critical” to the future of the group.

The positive data from the Phase III FIND-CKD study hit two key endpoints. Kerendia slowed disease progression in adults with non-diabetic chronic kidney disease, measured by the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). A secondary composite endpoint — covering kidney failure, a sustained eGFR decline of at least 57%, hospitalisation for heart failure and cardiovascular death — also showed a statistically significant reduction. The findings were presented as a late-breaker on June 5 at the 63rd Congress of the European Renal Association in Glasgow and published simultaneously in the New England Journal of Medicine, a dual platform regarded as a mark of high scientific credibility.

The drug is already approved for other indications, and the new data opens up a potential market in patients with non-diabetic CKD, an area with few effective therapies. Bayer now needs to submit the results to regulatory authorities to secure an expanded label. How quickly that process moves — and whether regulators deem the evidence sufficient — will determine the commercial upside.

Yet the pipeline win is only one part of a broader narrative dominated by litigation, geopolitical risk and domestic headwinds. The Supreme Court is expected to rule in June 2026 on whether federal warning labels on glyphosate issued by the Environmental Protection Agency are legally binding, or whether individual states can impose stricter requirements. A victory for Bayer could undercut future waves of lawsuits. The group has already paid out more than $10 billion in settlements and set aside another $8 billion for remaining liabilities. Anderson characterised the legal campaign against the company as “false science and hysteria” driven by plaintiff attorneys.

Operational challenges are also piling up at home. Anderson used the occasion to deliver a broadside against Germany as a business location. Electricity costs three times as much as in Texas and double the level in China, he said, while bureaucracy and non-wage labour costs add further strain. He pointed to recent pullbacks by Eli Lilly and Boehringer Ingelheim, who have scaled back investment plans in the country. A geopolitical warning accompanied the criticism: a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could, Anderson argued, cut harvests across the northern hemisphere as early as autumn 2026, given that roughly one-third of global nitrogen fertiliser trade passes through the waterway.

Against that backdrop, insider buying has drawn attention. Transactions totalling approximately €1.69 million were registered last week, among the highest in the DAX. The purchases suggest that some within the company see value at current levels, even as the stock trades 28% below its 52-week high of €49.93 and has lost 5.46% since the start of the year.

Technically, the €35.80 level — the 200-day moving average — remains the pivotal support. The relative strength index stands at 42.6, comfortably in neutral territory. With the Supreme Court deadline looming, the Kerendia regulatory submission ahead and the geopolitical picture clouded, volatility is likely to stay elevated. The coming days will test whether the share price can hold above the 200-day line or succumbs to the weight of the uncertainties stacking up.