Infrastructure-Led Turn for ICLN as Data-Center Demand and Reforms Drive the Narrative

The clean-energy space is entering 2026 with a shift away from highly political, growth-at-any-cost storytelling toward an infrastructure-centric theme. Key catalysts are a sustained rise in 24/7 green power demand from hyperscale data centers and faster permitting reforms in the United States and the European Union. Could this mark the end of a politics-driven rally and the start of a more stable valuation floor for infrastructure equities?

• Ongoing, reliable demand for around-the-clock green electricity from major technology players.
• Accelerated permitting reforms (SPEED/PERMIT Acts, EU Net-Zero Industry Act) easing interconnection bottlenecks.

Why this pivot makes sense

Technology incumbents are securing continuous renewable energy for their data-center estates, creating direct revenue implications for baseload-friendly renewables and for fuel-cell manufacturers. Concurrently, new U.S. policy initiatives and EU regulatory changes are trimming delays in grid connections. Taken together, these dynamics provide a more solid backdrop for valuations that had been vulnerable to shifting political narratives.

Portfolio composition, weights and performance

ICLN positions itself as a broad play on infrastructure across the whole value chain. The fund’s top 10 holdings account for about 52% of assets, signaling a relatively concentrated tilt toward sector leaders.

Key figures (as of today):
- Top holdings: First Solar ~8.7%, Bloom Energy ~7.6%, Iberdrola ~6.6%, Vestas ~6.4%, Nextpower ~5.9%.
- Sector allocation: Utilities ~47%, Industrials ~25%.
- Geography: U.S. weighting roughly 35–40%, with a strong European footprint (Spain, Denmark, Portugal) and exposure to select Asian markets.

Performance metrics:
- 1 week: +4.08%
- 1 month: +2.58%
- YTD (2026): +4.08%
- 1 year: +47.04%

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying iShares Global Clean Energy ETF?

Liquidity and cost considerations:
- Liquidity: average daily trading volume above $40 million.
- Premium to NAV: around +0.33%.
- Volatility: generally more moderate than pure solar-focused ETFs due to the heavy Utilities exposure.

Cost comparison and fund scale
ICLN remains a cost-efficient option with an expense ratio of 0.39%, notably cheaper than peers such as TAN (~0.70%) and QCLN (~0.56%). Recent flow dynamics have weighed on QCLN, which has seen larger outflows and an AUM of roughly $535 million. This has enhanced ICLN’s relative appeal to investors seeking broader infrastructure exposure within the clean-energy universe.

Q1 2026 outlook: three takeaways

1) April rebalancing: If First Solar breaches a 10% weight, portfolio rebalancing could trigger sales and favor smaller names.
2) Interest-rate environment: A stabilization or decline would support capital-intensive project financing, benefiting Nextpower and Vestas.
3) Technical posture: A move beyond the $17.00 level has signaled a fresh demand thesis; maintaining this level could help uphold the market’s premium versus a subsidies-only narrative.

Bottom line

ICLN has evolved from a politically driven bet into a vehicle anchored in infrastructure themes, underpinned by durable data-center demand and regulatory relief. Short-term risks remain around execution and rebalance timing, with the April rebalancing and current price levels playing pivotal roles in the trajectory of the fund.