ImmunityBio's Rally Hits a Technical Barrier as Short Sellers Circle and ANKTIVA Sales Take Center Stage

ImmunityBio shares surge 369% YTD as ANKTIVA sales soar 168%, but technical exhaustion and 13% short float create a high-stakes tug-of-war.

8,15 Euro — that is where ImmunityBio shares closed the week, a 7.38% weekly gain but a 1.21% dip on Friday. The biotech has been on a tear, piling on 369% since the start of the year and 255% over the past twelve months. Yet beneath that blistering run, a tug-of-war is brewing between technical exhaustion and a formidable short-seller presence.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index sits at 71.4, firmly in overbought territory. The stock trades nearly 23% above its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, both at 6.63 euro. Meanwhile, roughly 13% of the freely tradable shares are sold short, with days to cover clocking in at nearly twelve. If bears are forced to close their positions, the average daily volume suggests a drawn-out scramble — classic short-squeeze fuel. But with the RSI flashing red, the path between a squeeze and a sharp pullback is razor-thin.

ANKTIVA: The Engine Behind the Surge

The rally’s sole driver is ANKTIVA, ImmunityBio’s cancer immunotherapy that is gaining traction on multiple fronts. First-quarter net sales of ANKTIVA hit $44.2 million, a 168% jump year-over-year that beat analyst estimates. Full-year revenue for the company climbed 352%, though that came with a massive operating loss of $261 million, underscoring the heavy investment still needed. The operating margin remains deep in negative territory, and the company’s ability to fund its losses hangs on continued commercial progress.

On the regulatory side, the FDA has accepted a supplemental Biologics License Application for ANKTIVA in combination with BCG for a specific form of non-muscle invasive bladder cancer that no longer responds to BCG alone. The agency has set a PDUFA date of January 6, 2027, — a distant but potentially transformative catalyst. In the nearer term, investors are watching for a possible expansion of ANKTIVA’s reach in Saudi Arabia, where it is already approved for certain bladder and lung cancer patients. July could bring news of broader access or deeper market penetration in the region.

Insider Exit and the Technical Picture

Adding to the mixed signals, board member Christobel Selecky sold shares worth approximately $871,215 on June 29 and 30. The transactions were conducted under a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan following the exercise of stock options, and Selecky no longer holds any direct shares in ImmunityBio.

Chart watchers see a stock in a powerful uptrend but at heightened risk of a reversal. The annualized 30-day volatility stands at 63%, highlighting just how prone the shares are to violent swings. The 52-week high of $10.54 euro was reached on February 25, leaving the current price roughly 22% below that peak. From the November trough of $1.66 euro, the stock has gained a staggering 390%. The 50-day moving average at 6.63 euro is now a critical support level; a break below it could trigger a rapid and sharp consolidation.

The Short Squeeze Variable

The large short position — 13% of the float — creates a special dynamic. If ImmunityBio delivers strong second-quarter numbers or positive news from Saudi Arabia, short sellers may rush to cover, amplifying any upward move. But with the stock already overbought and fundamentals still strained, the upside may be capped absent a clear catalyst. The market is waiting for Q2 results to see if ANKTIVA’s sales momentum can be sustained after the blowout first quarter.

All eyes are on upcoming sales data and the company’s ability to shore up liquidity. The high short interest and extreme volatility mean that every data point — whether about ANKTIVA prescriptions, regulatory progress, or financing moves — could send the stock careening in either direction.