Hims & Hers: The Telehealth Stock Caught Between a Lilly Lifeline and an Amazon Ambush

Hims & Hers navigates a pivotal moment: a new Eli Lilly distribution deal lifts analyst targets, while Amazon's entry into weight-loss care pressures shares. Earnings on May 11 could decide the next move.

The bull-bear tug-of-war over Hims & Hers is getting harder to ignore. On one side, a new distribution deal with Eli Lilly has analysts lifting price targets. On the other, Amazon is muscling into the same weight-loss market, sending the stock sliding 4% in a single session to close near $28. The clash sets the stage for what could be a pivotal earnings report on May 11.

A Strategic Pivot Under Pressure

Hims & Hers is quietly reshaping its business model. Rather than leaning solely on compounded semaglutide — the cheaper, copycat GLP-1 drugs that fueled its 2025 growth spurt — the company is now routing patients toward branded alternatives. Doctors on the platform can prescribe Eli Lilly’s Zepbound vials and KwikPens, as well as Foundayo, with prescriptions filled directly through LillyDirect. Patients pay out-of-pocket rates, plus a $149 monthly Hims membership fee.

Bank of America called the move “neutral to positive,” lifting its price target to $32 from $30 while maintaining a Neutral rating. The bank stressed the arrangement is non-exclusive — any licensed physician can prescribe through LillyDirect — but argued it builds goodwill with Lilly and reduces regulatory exposure. That matters because the company’s 2026 guidance hinges on continued access to compounded semaglutide, a regulatory risk that investors are watching closely.

The Lilly tie-up follows a previously announced partnership with Novo Nordisk for Wegovy access. Together, the deals signal a deliberate shift: Hims & Hers is repositioning itself as a technology intermediary rather than a compounder of copycat drugs.

Amazon Enters the Ring

That pivot comes just as Amazon escalates its push into digital weight-loss medicine. The tech giant is expanding its One Medical platform, targeting the lucrative GLP-1 market directly. Analysts warn that a price war could erode margins for pure-play telehealth providers. Hims & Hers shares fell 4% on the news, failing to break through resistance at $30 despite heavy options activity — nearly 115,000 contracts traded, with calls accounting for over three-quarters of the volume.

The competitive threat is real. Amazon’s scale, logistics, and existing customer base give it a formidable advantage. Hims & Hers, by contrast, is already seeing margin compression: gross margins have shrunk by roughly 500 basis points over recent quarters. Customer acquisition costs are rising, and rivals like Ro and Amazon are circling.

Wall Street Remains Deeply Split

Seldom has the analyst community been so divided on a single stock. JPMorgan initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $35 target. Morgan Stanley is the most cautious among the major houses, sticking with Equal-weight and a $21 target, arguing the recent rally has run far ahead of near-term fundamentals. Leerink called the FDA’s review of peptides “clearly positive” but warned the impact won’t show up in revenue immediately.

The consensus sits at Hold, with an average price target of roughly $32.53.

The Numbers Tell Two Stories

The company’s proxy report for its virtual annual meeting on June 11, 2026, paints a picture of explosive growth. Revenue hit $2.35 billion in 2025, up 59% year-over-year. Subscribers surpassed 2.5 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $318 million, and operating cash flow came in at $300 million.

But the forward look is more complicated. For the first quarter, analysts expect revenue of $621.4 million — roughly 6% growth from the year-ago period. Earnings per share are forecast at $0.06, a 70% decline. Insider selling has totaled $5.5 million over the past three months, with no insider purchases reported.

The stock has surged about 58% over the past month but still trades well below its 200-day moving average near $38. Whether the May 11 earnings report breaks that resistance or validates Morgan Stanley’s caution will likely determine the next leg. For now, Hims & Hers is navigating a three-way squeeze: a strategic pivot, a regulatory cliff, and a new competitor with nearly unlimited resources.