High-Grade Antimony Assays Fail to Halt Antimony Resources' 75% Slide as Commodity Cycle Turns

Despite record drill grades up to 33.4% antimony at Bald Hill, Antimony Resources stock falls 75% as antimony prices collapse over 60% from peak. RSI near oversold.

Antimony Resources is delivering some of its best-ever drill results from the Bald Hill project in New Brunswick, yet its stock closed Friday at €0.2630 — down 5.05% on the day and roughly 75% below the March high of €1.05. The disconnect between exploration success and market sentiment has rarely been sharper. Over the past month alone, the shares have shed 34.41% of their value, dragging the 14-day relative strength index to 30.1, just above oversold territory.

The root cause lies far from the drilling rigs. Antimony prices have collapsed from the stratospheric levels reached earlier in the cycle. After China introduced an export licensing regime for antimony in September 2024, the European reference price surged from around $12,000 per tonne to a peak of roughly $59,750 in July 2025. Since then, it has been in steady retreat, now sitting at approximately $23,000 — a decline of more than 60% from the high. The Chinese domestic market has been hit even harder: 99.65% antimony metal was quoted at $15,939.71 per tonne on July 2, down 18.5% from June, and by July 17 Shanghai Metals Market reported a further plunge to about $12,253, with a single-day loss of over $398.

As a pure-play explorer with no operating mines to generate cash flow, Antimony Resources is effectively a levered proxy on the antimony price. The stock tracked the commodity's meteoric rise and is now following it relentlessly lower. The annualized 30-day volatility of 111.70% underscores just how violently this equity swings in both directions.

While the market fixates on the price rout, the Bald Hill project continues to deliver eye-catching grades. A trenching program in the newly identified Central Zone returned samples grading up to 20.5% antimony in June, and early July drill results from the Main Zone included intercepts as high as 33.40% antimony. The company is pressing ahead with a 18,000- to 19,000-meter drilling campaign aimed at expanding the known mineralization and testing the Central Zone's potential.

All eyes now turn to the maiden mineral resource estimate for Bald Hill — the next major catalyst. A technical report from 2025 outlined a potential target of roughly 2.7 million tonnes at 3% to 4% antimony, but that figure remains unconfirmed. Antimony Resources says most of the preparatory work for the resource model is already complete. The company also appears well-funded for the current campaign: a November 2025 capital raise and other inflows left it with C$8.24 million in cash as of February 28, 2026, enough to cover the entire exploration program without an immediate need for further equity dilution. The share count has already climbed to 103.32 million as of May 2026, and any future fundraising would likely add to that pressure.

Beneath the near-term price weakness, the structural dynamics that originally ignited the antimony bull market remain intact. China controls roughly 48% of global antimony mine output and 74% of refining capacity for antimony trioxide. The export licensing regime is still in place, creating a persistent wedge between Chinese domestic prices and those in the rest of the world — the European reference price currently carries a 44% premium over the Chinese market. This bifurcation shows no sign of dissolving quickly. Moreover, the long-term demand thesis for antimony as a critical mineral in green technologies, clean energy systems, and defense applications continues to attract policy support; Canada's critical minerals strategy specifically targets domestic exploration and production of such commodities. Global market value is projected to rise from $1.22 billion in 2026 to $2.01 billion by 2034, a compound annual growth rate of 5.8%.

For now, however, the immediate direction of Antimony Resources depends far more on where the antimony price finds its floor than on any individual assay result. The stock trades 39.55% below its 50-day moving average and 44.19% below its 200-day moving average — signs of persistent downward pressure across multiple time horizons. The coming weeks will be dominated by two questions: whether the drilling program can deliver further high-grade intercepts, and whether the maiden resource estimate can match or exceed the earlier technical target. A confirmed resource in the vicinity of 2.7 million tonnes at 3-4% antimony would provide a tangible foundation for a re-rating. But until the antimony market stabilizes, the stock's performance will likely remain hostage to the broader commodity cycle — and that cycle has not yet signaled a bottom.