Hensoldt Stock Caught Between Insider Buys and Radar Setback as Earnings Test Approaches

Hensoldt shares fall 35% from peak after losing key MEKO frigate radar deal to Saab; insider buying and strong Q1 orders contrast with bearish analyst downgrade.

Hensoldt shares closed the week at €74.66, a session gain of 0.86% that did little to mask a deeper malaise. Over the past seven trading days the stock shed 6.68%, and from the 52-week high of €115.10 struck on 3 October 2025 the shares have now slumped roughly 35%. The stock trades below both its 50-day moving average of €76.88 and the 200-day line at €79.95, while an annualised volatility of more than 56% underscores persistent market jitters.

The latest blow came when Sweden’s Saab secured the radar package for the four new MEKO A-200 frigates ordered by Berlin, along with the IRIS-T SLS air-defence system. The decision deals a concrete setback to Hensoldt, long regarded as a “national champion” in German defence procurement. The company had already lost a previous contract tied to the now-cancelled F126 frigate programme, where it was slated to supply the TRS-4D surveillance radar with an estimated order value of around €200 million. Unlike that earlier loss, the MEKO radar deal is a fresh snub directly from the competitor.

Paradoxically, Hensoldt management has been signalling confidence from within. Board members Oliver Dörre and Inka Tews have purchased shares multiple times in recent days, in some cases at prices above the current market level. Insider buying during a weakness phase is often interpreted by market-watchers as a vote of faith in the company’s trajectory. The leadership also reaffirmed its full-year targets: revenue of roughly €2.75 billion for 2026, an EBITDA margin between 18.5% and 19.0%, and an improved free cash flow conversion rate of around 50% of adjusted EBITDA, up from a prior 40%.

The disconnect between management’s bullish stance and the stock’s slide is mirrored by an extraordinary gap between analyst views. On 9 July, mwb Research cut its rating from Hold to Sell and slashed its price target to just €62. The downgrade was striking because the same house had upgraded the stock only weeks earlier. The bear case: the pre-NATO summit rally was a “rally without contracts” that took the stock from €64 to about €81 on no new orders or budget allocations, and the lost radar contract now provides a concrete example of execution risk. With the shares trading at roughly 18 times expected 2026 EBIT, mwb argues the valuation is simply too high.

On the flip side, Jefferies lifted its price target on 10 July from €90 to €94 and reiterated a Buy rating. The bank contends that defence budgets are shifting away from heavy armour toward complex electronics and air defence—precisely Hensoldt’s core territory. The average analyst consensus of around €88.70 sits well above the current price, with the highest estimate reaching €105, while mwb’s €62 is the lowest.

Operationally, Hensoldt delivered striking first-quarter numbers. Order intake more than doubled to €1.483 billion, the order backlog swelled to a record €9.801 billion, and the book-to-bill ratio hit a robust 3.0x. Revenue climbed over 25% to €496 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose to €44 million. These results suggest that the underlying business remains fundamentally strong despite the radar setbacks and the wider market nervousness captured by the elevated volatility.

The next major test arrives on 31 July, when Hensoldt publishes its half-year report. Investors will scrutinise whether the Q1 momentum continued through the second quarter and how deeply the original F126 contract loss—and now the MEKO radar defection—cut into margins. Additionally, the Bundestag approved procurement worth more than €9.5 billion on 8 July, including €6.3 billion for the first four MEKO frigates and an option for four more at €5.3 billion that Berlin can exercise until the end of 2026. Whether Hensoldt’s radar technology finds a place in follow-on orders remains an open question that could shape the stock’s direction for months to come.