Hensoldt Shares Rebound from 52-Week Low as Orders Double, but Technical Damage Lingers

Despite record order intake and raised cash flow guidance, Hensoldt's stock remains technically weak; all eyes on the July 31 half-year report for a catalyst.

Hensoldt has staged a long-awaited bounce, climbing 4.25% to €67.72 on Monday as buyers stepped in after the defence stock hit a fresh 52-week low of €63.12 just days earlier. The rally, which also lifted sector peers Rheinmetall and Renk, snapped a brutal sell-off that had wiped nearly 23% off the stock in the past month alone. Yet even after the jump, the shares remain far from healed — the closing price of €68.44 is still roughly 40% below October’s all-time high of €115.10.

The disconnect between Hensoldt’s operational strength and its market performance has become glaringly obvious. In the first quarter of 2026, the company reported order intake of €1.483 billion — more than double the €701 million booked a year earlier — pushing the total order backlog to roughly €9.8 billion. Revenue climbed to €496 million, while adjusted EBITDA reached €44 million. The management reaffirmed its full-year guidance for revenue of approximately €2.75 billion, a book-to-bill ratio of between 1.5x and 2.0x, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5% to 19%.

Despite those headline numbers, the stock has been unable to shake off the bears. The current price sits roughly 11% below the 50-day moving average and more than 16% below the 200-day moving average. The relative strength index is close to 40, indicating the shares are not yet oversold, while the annualised 30-day volatility at nearly 55% underscores how jittery the market remains. With the 52-week high still €115.10 away and the low of €63.12 less than 8% below, the technical picture offers little comfort for bulls.

One bright spot emerged in early June when Hensoldt lifted its cash flow forecast, citing faster procurement processes in Germany and higher customer advances. The company now expects a cash conversion rate of around 50% of adjusted EBITDA, up from a previous estimate of roughly 40%. The move suggests that the order backlog is starting to convert into actual cash more quickly, a factor that could reassure investors once the half-year numbers are published.

The broader defence sector provided a tailwind on Monday, with Rheinmetall and Renk also posting solid gains after weeks of selling pressure had driven the entire German defence complex to its lowest levels since early 2025. For Hensoldt, the bounce represents an initial attempt at stabilisation, but the path ahead is littered with resistance. The 50-day moving average at roughly €77.12 now emerges as the first meaningful upside target.

All eyes now turn to the half-year report, scheduled for release on July 31 in Taufkirchen. Until then, official financial updates will be scarce, as Hensoldt typically limits communication with the capital market ahead of quarterly and annual results. The key question for investors is whether the record order book will finally translate into visible revenue and cash flow momentum, and whether the share price can hold above the €63 support level until then.