Hensoldt’s Radar Resilience Shines Through F126 Cancellation as Order Backlog Hits €9.8 Billion

Despite losing a €200M radar order, Hensoldt keeps 2026 revenue and margin guidance, backed by a €9.8B order backlog and resilient TRS-4D product family.

The German defence ministry’s abrupt decision to scrap the F126 frigate programme has wiped a radar contract worth more than €200 million from Hensoldt’s pipeline, but the Munich-based sensor specialist is refusing to blink. Management has held its financial targets steady, and the stock is already showing tentative signs of stabilisation after a sharp sell-off.

More than a third of the original order value had already been recognised as revenue, limiting the immediate hit. For 2026, the planned contributions from F126 were in the low double-digit millions — modest enough for CEO Oliver Dörre to reaffirm both the €2.75 billion revenue target for that year and the adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5% to 19.0%. The company is now in talks with prime contractor Thales Netherlands to determine how the remaining scope will be handled, and what role Hensoldt can play in future modernisation programmes.

What makes the setback less damaging than it first appears is the nature of the radar involved. The TRS-4D is not a one-off bespoke system; it sits inside a well-established product family already deployed on the German Navy’s F125 frigates and K130 corvettes, as well as on Brazil’s Tamandaré-class vessels. That international and multi-class track record means the cancellation does not pull the rug from under Hensoldt’s radar business. The technology remains in demand, and the company’s order books reflect that resilience.

In the first quarter alone, Hensoldt booked €1.483 billion in new orders — more than double the year-ago figure — lifting the total order backlog to €9.801 billion. That hefty pipeline provides a buffer against programme disruptions and explains why analysts remain broadly constructive. DZ Bank, for instance, has kept a buy rating on the stock with a €90 price target, well above current levels.

Shares closed at €67.74 on Tuesday, a marginal daily decline. Over the past 30 days the stock has fallen roughly 19%, and it is now trading around 17% below its 200-day moving average. Year-to-date the loss stands at about 11% — though the secondary article puts that figure at 30%, a discrepancy likely arising from different base periods. The stock touched its 2024 low of €63.12 in late June and has since recovered about 7%, with the 50-day moving average emerging as the first technical resistance.

Clarity on the contractual treatment of the F126 residual volume could come as early as 31 July, when Hensoldt is due to publish its half-year financial report. That release will be closely watched for any fine print on the programme wind-down, as well as for confirmation that the radar franchise’s broader momentum remains intact.