Hensoldt’s Moose Jaw Radar Win Adds to Record Orders as Shares Eye Key Resistance

Hensoldt secures ASR-NG radar deal for Canada's Future Aircrew Training program; Q1 orders double to €1.48B, revenue up 26%, dividend increased to €0.55. Stock rebounds but faces resistance near €90-96.

Hensoldt has secured a contract to supply an advanced air surveillance radar to the Canadian joint venture SkyAlyne, a partnership between CAE and KF Aerospace. The ASR-NG system will be installed at 15 Wing Moose Jaw, a Royal Canadian Air Force base, with commissioning scheduled for late 2027. The radar supports the Future Aircrew Training programme and addresses a common pain point: it suppresses interference from wind turbines and provides three-dimensional coverage over a radius of more than 200 kilometres, tracking objects up to 50,000 feet. An integrated secondary radar enables automatic identification using the modern Mode S standard.

The Canadian deal adds to an already bulging order book. In the first quarter of 2026, Hensoldt’s order intake more than doubled to €1.48 billion, pushing the total backlog to a record €9.8 billion. Shareholders have also been rewarded: the annual general meeting on 22 May approved a dividend increase to €0.55 per share with 99.99% of votes in favour, and the payout was made on 27 May.

Revenue for the opening quarter climbed to €496 million from €395 million a year earlier, while adjusted EBITDA rose to €44 million from €30 million. The margin improved to 8.9% from 7.6%, reflecting the operating leverage that comes with higher volumes. Management is sticking to its full-year outlook of around €2.75 billion in revenue and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5% to 19%.

On the bourse, Hensoldt shares have staged a notable recovery. After dipping to €84.70 on 26 May, the stock rebounded to €88.50, a gain of 4.46% that day. The move pushed it comfortably above both the 50-day moving average at €78.39 and the 200-day line, which was calculated at €83.82 in the primary source. However, a slightly different 200-day average of €83.81 was cited in the secondary analysis, with the stock closing at €85.16 on Wednesday — just 1.61% above that level. The relative strength index stands at 68.6, suggesting room to run before entering overbought territory.

Short-term momentum has been choppy. Over the past 30 days the shares have gained 15.33%, but the seven-day performance shows a 2.96% decline, hinting at profit-taking after the rapid ascent. With an annualised 30-day volatility of 51.92%, the ride remains bumpy.

The immediate technical challenge is the €90 to €96 zone, a band that has acted as resistance. A clean break above €96 would give the recovery far more credibility, while a drop back under €80 would damage the recent progress. For now, the stock is trading 26% below its 52-week high of €115.10 and 29% above the low of €65.90. Year-to-date, Hensoldt is up 11.47%, though it still trails by 5.80% over twelve months.

Valuation remains a sticking point. The forward price-to-earnings ratio hovers around 40, leaving little margin for error. Further operational validation — preferably through more contract wins and stable margins — will be needed to justify the premium. The Moose Jaw radar installation is years away, but it reinforces Hensoldt’s expansion beyond its European core and keeps the order pipeline flowing. For now, the shares are walking a tightrope between record demand and a stretched price tag.