Hensoldt’s Logistics Hub Opens as F126 Fallout Sends Shares to 12-Month Low

Hensoldt's shares hit a 52-week low after the German defence ministry cancels the F126 frigate programme, overshadowing the opening of a new central warehouse and strong Q1 orders.

The defence electronics group has marked a milestone in supply-chain modernisation just as its stock hits the hardest wall in a year. Hensoldt’s new central warehouse in Wolfhagen — dubbed ZEBEL — spans 40,000 square metres and is designed to handle more than 70,000 different spare parts, with annual transactions expected to exceed one million. The facility aims for a 98% fulfilment rate on material requests and will create over 70 jobs. Operationally, the move signals a clear commitment to hardening defence logistics networks. Yet the market has been looking in the opposite direction.

On 24 June, the German defence ministry pulled the plug on the F126 frigate programme, citing cost overruns that had pushed the estimated total beyond €18 billion — with €2.3 billion already spent. Hensoldt had been set to supply TRS-4D naval radars for the project through Thales. The cancellation leaves a gap in the company’s marine business that cannot be filled overnight. Although the ministry plans to order eight MEKO A-200 frigates as a replacement, whether Hensoldt will secure the radar contract remains an open question.

The stock market’s reaction was swift and severe. Hensoldt shares touched a 52-week low of €63.12 on Friday and now trade at around €63.74 — about 45% below the October 2025 peak of €115.10. The slide has accelerated in recent weeks: the stock has lost roughly 25% over the past 30 days and stands more than 22% below its 200-day moving average of €81.75. The relative strength index has dropped to 28.7, signalling technically oversold conditions that could trigger a short-term bounce, but the broader trend remains firmly negative.

The support zone between €63.90 and €64.80 was breached on Friday, and a sustained recovery above those levels has yet to materialise. Analysts point out that as long as the defence budget discussions in Berlin and the F126 fallout create uncertainty, pressure on the shares is likely to persist. One hedge fund has even built a net short position — a bet on further decline.

Yet not all signals point downward. Hensoldt posted a strong first quarter in 2026: order intake doubled year-on-year to €1.483 billion, pushing the order backlog to a record €9.801 billion. Drivers included contracts for platforms such as Schakal and Puma, plus extensions for Eurofighter Mk1 radars. Management reaffirmed its full-year guidance, signalling confidence that the F126 loss can be absorbed. New ventures — a strategic partnership on the FREYJA missile defence system and the SkyBarrier mobile broadband jammer — are broadening the product mix.

Perhaps the most visible vote of confidence came from CEO Oliver Dörre, who bought 2,500 shares on 22 June — just two days before the F126 news broke. Such insider purchases are often read by market watchers as a signal that management sees the current price as undervalued. The structural tailwind from rising European defence spending also remains intact, with demand growing for networked, software-driven solutions where Hensoldt is well positioned.

The bearish case hinges on whether the marine business can recover. The loss of F126 is not a peripheral issue; it punches a hole in a key division. While the MEKO A-200 programme offers a potential substitute, no concrete commitment has been made, and the cancellation itself has raised broader concerns about the reliability of large government contracts even in a heightened defence-spending environment. With annualised 30-day volatility at nearly 56%, the market remains jittery.

The next major test comes on 31 July, when Hensoldt releases its half-year results. That report will reveal how much of the F126 impact has already hit the financials and whether management can still defend its full-year targets. Until then, the shares are caught between a record order book and a sudden vacuum in naval radar revenue — a tension that will define the stock’s trajectory for the rest of the year.