Hensoldt’s €200M Radar Blow Overshadows Record Orders as Shares Skid to Year Low

Hensoldt shares near 52-week low after Germany cancels €10B F126 frigate program, jeopardizing over €200M radar deal; replacement MEKO A-200 frigates may favor US tech.

Hensoldt’s share price has tumbled close to its 52-week trough after Germany’s defence ministry axed the F126 frigate programme, threatening a radar contract worth more than €200 million. The stock slid nearly 7% on Thursday to €64.10, barely a step above the fresh 12-month low of €63.50 set in the same session.

The cancellation of the F126 project, originally budgeted at around €10 billion, leaves Hensoldt’s role as the supplier of TRS?4D naval radars for all six vessels in limbo. The company had secured an initial order in 2022 covering four ships plus a test-centre segment, and expanded this in August last year to include the remaining two frigates, lifting the total contract value above €200 million.

Berlin cited “significant delays and massive cost increases” for pulling the plug. Switching the prime contractor to Naval Vessels Lürssen alone would have pushed the new construction contract to roughly €15.2 billion, and the entire programme, including work already completed, would have exceeded €18 billion.

As a replacement, the ministry plans to buy eight MEKO A?200 frigates. The first four are priced at about €6.3 billion, with an option for four more worth around €5.3 billion that could be exercised by the end of 2026. That option contains worrying news for Hensoldt: whereas the F126 programme relied heavily on German equipment, industry sources indicate that a larger share of the technology for the MEKO vessels will come from US firms. The ministry has so far declined to say whether Hensoldt will supply any radar or sensor components to the new procurement line.

Market wants proof, not promises

The sell?off on Thursday unfolded on a day when Hensoldt management was presenting at the Jefferies DACH Corporate Conference in Baden?Baden. The event ran in a closed format for pre?registered investors only, leaving the wider market with no fresh operational figures to digest. Investor communication typically goes quiet ahead of half?year earnings, and the next hard data point arrives on 31 July when Hensoldt releases its H1 2026 report.

The current price action reflects a market that is impatient with guidance and hungry for delivery. On 1 June, Hensoldt upgraded its outlook for adjusted free cash flow to roughly 50% of adjusted EBITDA, up from around 40%, citing higher customer advances and faster procurement processes in Germany. The rest of the annual targets — book?to?bill, revenue, adjusted EBITDA margin and a net leverage ratio of about 1.5x for 2026 — were all confirmed.

Yet investors have so far shrugged off that upgrade. The stock has lost more than 25% over the past 30 days and is now more than 40% below its 52?week high of €115.10 reached in October last year. The relative strength index has dipped to 29, signalling oversold territory, while the annualised 30?day volatility stands at nearly 53%.

Record order intake, but execution doubts linger

Operationally, Hensoldt’s first?quarter numbers paint a robust picture. Order intake surged to €1,483 million in Q1 2026, more than doubling the €701 million recorded a year earlier. The order backlog swelled to €9,801 million, and revenue came in at €496 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached €44 million.

The Optronics segment was a standout, booking €759 million in orders driven by large contracts for the Puma and Schakal platforms. Sensors, the division directly affected by the F126 cancellation, contributed €725 million.

The fundamental question is not whether Hensoldt can win contracts — it clearly can — but whether it can convert those contracts into predictable margins and free cash flow. The F126 setback adds a layer of execution risk that was not priced in a few weeks ago.

Next proving ground: 31 July

Technically, the stock remains fragile. The 52?week low was revisited on Thursday, and the RSI at 29 points to a market that may be oversold but lacks a catalyst to reverse direction. The half?year results due at the end of July will be the first opportunity for management to address the F126 fallout publicly — and to convince investors that the upgraded cash?flow forecast is more than a promise. Until then, every investor conference remains a placeholder, and the radar contract’s fate hangs in the air.