Hensoldt’s €1.5 Billion Quarter Masks a Share Price Reversal as Analysts Race to Lift Targets

Hensoldt posts record €1.5B Q1 orders and €9.8B backlog, but stock falls 4%. Analysts raise targets amid €1B capacity expansion and luWES defence program potential.

The defence electronics group Hensoldt has delivered a first-quarter performance that has analysts scrambling to update their models, yet the stock has taken an unexpected turn lower. Investors sold off the shares on Thursday, sending them down more than 4% to €77.28, a move that broke through the 100-day moving average and put the 50-day line at €77.50 firmly in the crosshairs as the next technical support level to defend.

The catalyst for the analyst upgrades was a blockbuster order intake of nearly €1.5 billion in the first three months of the year, roughly double the prior-year level. Deutsche Bank’s Christophe Menard responded by reaffirming his buy recommendation and lifting his price target to €101. Other investment banks followed suit after the quarterly update: Barclays set a target of €95, Jefferies came in at €90, and JP Morgan pegged the stock at €85.

A Backlog That Stretches Years Ahead

Chief Financial Officer Christian Ladurner pointed to a record order backlog of €9.8 billion, providing what he described as comfortable planning certainty for the years ahead. The management team is holding firm to its full-year guidance, with a 2026 revenue target of roughly €2.75 billion still on the table.

To process this swelling workload, Hensoldt is scaling up its industrial footprint. The company recently opened a new site in Ulm dedicated to developing advanced radar technologies. At the same time, it has reshuffled its executive board, with Inka Tews taking over human resources responsibilities at the start of May.

The luWES Prize: Electronic Warfare Goes Big

Beyond the quarterly numbers, Hensoldt has begun sketching out the scale of a potentially transformative defence programme. The luWES project — short for airborne electromagnetic attack capabilities — is currently in the bidding phase, with Hensoldt aiming to supply the core mission system. Management estimates the total programme value at a low single-digit billion euro figure, covering up to twelve aircraft.

The company is positioning itself as the lead developer of the stand-off jammer, a critical component that could account for roughly half of the total project spend. Hensoldt is working alongside Airbus and MBDA in a consortium that would share the spoils if the contract is awarded. The decision timeline remains unclear, but the revenue potential is substantial enough to reshape the company’s growth trajectory.

A Billion-Euro Capacity Bet and a Raised 2030 Target

To handle both the luWES opportunity and its existing order book, Hensoldt is ploughing another €1 billion into expanding industrial capacity, building on heavy investment in previous years. The workforce is growing rapidly too: the company plans to hire 1,600 new employees this year alone.

Supply chain security is also getting attention. A new long-term agreement guarantees Hensoldt access to nearly one million essential gallium-nitride chips, the semiconductor technology that underpins modern radar systems. Armed with this production base, the board has raised its 2030 revenue target to €6 billion.

The Dividend Calendar

Shareholders have a date to mark. The annual general meeting is scheduled for 22 May 2026, where a dividend of €0.55 per share will be put to a vote. If approved, the payout will follow on 27 May, with the ex-dividend date falling two trading days earlier.

Despite the Thursday sell-off, Hensoldt’s stock has still gained 13% over the past twelve months, supported by sustained high defence budgets at both national and European levels. The question now is whether the market’s short-term caution will give way to the longer-term story of a company sitting on a record backlog, chasing a billion-euro programme, and investing heavily to deliver on both.