Hensoldt Faces a Crucial Test as Short Sellers Circle Ahead of Q1 Results

Hensoldt reports Q1 results on May 6 amid rising short interest and a 9% stock rally. Analysts forecast 24% revenue growth to €490M, with a narrower loss per share of €0.16.

The defense electronics group Hensoldt is set to release its first-quarter figures on May 6, and the stakes are unusually high. While the company typically posts a loss in the opening months of the year due to the seasonal nature of its business, this time the numbers will be scrutinized against a backdrop of rising short interest and a share price that has finally shown signs of life.

Analysts are forecasting first-quarter revenue of around €489 million to €493 million, representing growth of roughly 24% compared to the same period in 2025. The bottom line is expected to remain in the red, with a loss per share of €0.16 — an improvement from the €0.26 loss recorded a year earlier. For the full year 2026, the market is looking for earnings per share of €1.77 on sales of approximately €2.75 billion, in line with management’s own guidance.

The stock has climbed roughly 8% to 9% over the past seven trading days, closing at €80.92 — comfortably above its 50-day moving average of around €77.64. That technical breakout marks the first meaningful recovery signal since the shares entered a downtrend in January. Still, the stock remains nearly 30% below its 52-week high of €115.10, a reminder of how far it has fallen.

What makes the upcoming report particularly intriguing is the positioning of short sellers. Net short positions above the EU disclosure threshold of 0.5% have been reported, creating a potential powder keg. Should Hensoldt’s first-quarter numbers beat expectations, these bearish bets could be forced to cover, adding further fuel to the recent rally.

Beyond the quarterly figures, investors will be watching the operating EBITDA margin closely. The company has set a target of 18.5% to 19% for the full year, after posting an adjusted margin of 18.4% in 2025. Whether Hensoldt can hit that mark depends on how efficiently it works through its substantial order backlog. The first quarter’s operating cash flow, while seasonally weak, should offer clues about progress on major projects.

Hensoldt is also laying the groundwork for future growth. In Ulm, the company has opened a new facility where more than 400 employees will work on radar and sensor projects. On the supply chain front, a multi-year agreement with United Monolithic Semiconductors will see 900,000 gallium-nitride components delivered by 2030 for air defense systems such as Skyranger and IRIS-T, reducing reliance on external suppliers. The management team has been strengthened as well, with Inka Tews joining the board as chief human resources officer on May 1.

The broader industry backdrop remains supportive. Global military spending hit a record $2.89 trillion in 2025, according to SIPRI, and rival Rheinmetall — despite missing first-quarter revenue expectations — reaffirmed its full-year targets, helping to shore up confidence in the sector.

Shareholders also have the annual general meeting on May 22 to look forward to, where a dividend of €0.55 per share for fiscal 2025 will be proposed. The ex-dividend date is set for May 25.

For now, all eyes are on Wednesday’s release. A strong set of numbers could validate the recent price action and put short sellers on the defensive. A miss, however, would likely see the technical recovery evaporate just as quickly as it appeared.