Hensoldt Enters AGM Week With Record Orders, a Dividend Hike and Two Key Strategic Bets as the Stock Struggles to Recover

Defence electronics leader Hensoldt reports doubled orders, record backlog, and 10% dividend increase, yet shares trade 36% below highs amid overbought signals and bearish technicals.

Hensoldt heads into its annual general meeting on Friday with a tale of two businesses. On the operational side, the defence electronics group is firing on all cylinders — order intake doubled in the first quarter, the backlog hit a fresh record, and a 10% dividend increase is on the table. On the stock side, the shares are trading 36% below their 52-week high and have lost 3.4% since the start of the year. The gap between earnings momentum and market sentiment could hardly be wider.

The first-quarter figures underline the strength. Order intake surged to €1.48bn, double the year-earlier level. Revenue climbed 25% to €496m, while adjusted EBITDA jumped 47%. The order backlog swelled to €9.8bn, a historic high that provides Hensoldt with multi-year revenue visibility — the strongest argument for the bulls.

Shareholders have a concrete reward to vote on. The board and supervisory board are proposing a dividend of €0.55 per share, a 10% increase on last year. If approved, the stock will trade ex-dividend on 25 May, with payment scheduled for 27 May.

Beyond the dividend vote, management is laying the groundwork for medium-term growth with two strategic moves. The first is the acquisition of Dutch optronics specialist Nedinsco, agreed in March 2026 and due to close around mid-year. Nedinsco develops periscopes and driver vision systems. The second is a cooperation with IBM Deutschland, formalised in a memorandum of understanding on 12 May, aimed at advancing Hensoldt’s MDOcore software suite in the field of software-defined defence.

Analysts remain broadly constructive, even if the stock price has yet to reflect the optimism. The average price target across eight analysts stands at €92.86, implying more than 25% upside from Friday’s closing price of €73.82. Deutsche Bank sees fair value at €101, Barclays at €95 and JPMorgan at €85. For the current year, Hensoldt is targeting revenue of around €2.75bn and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5% to 19.0%. For 2027, the consensus forecasts revenue of €3.21bn and net profit of €243m.

Technically, the stock faces headwinds despite the recent pullback. The relative strength index sits at 82.3, a level that signals overbought conditions and suggests the shares are vulnerable to profit-taking after their sharp run-up earlier in the spring. The price is also trading roughly 12% below its 200-day moving average, a bearish configuration that often keeps momentum-oriented buyers on the sidelines.

The critical question for the coming months is whether Hensoldt can convert its record order backlog into revenue quickly enough. Capacity expansion is the key variable, and the pace of that build-out will determine how far the operational strength can narrow the gap with the stock price. The next quarterly results, due in the autumn, will provide the first hard evidence. In the near term, management’s commentary on margin progression at Friday’s AGM is likely to set the tone for the next leg in the shares.