HelloFresh stock trades near recent lows as margin focus follows 2025 guidance update

HelloFresh stock is trading close to its twelve month low while investors weigh the meal kit groups 2025 guidance, margin trajectory, and slowing order growth from the latest annual report.

HelloFresh stock remains under pressure on the German market as investors digest the companys latest full year figures and 2025 guidance for its meal kit business. The Berlin based group HelloFresh SE (ISIN DE000A161408) reported that total revenue in fiscal 2024 reached roughly EUR 7.0 billion compared with about EUR 7.8 billion in 2023, reflecting a mid single digit to high single digit decline year on year as the pandemic driven boost to at home meal volumes continued to normalize according to its annual report for fiscal 2024 published in early 2025.

Revenue near EUR 7 billion in 2024

In the 2024 financial year HelloFresh generated around EUR 7.0 billion in revenue, down from about EUR 7.8 billion in fiscal 2023 according to its latest annual report released in early 2025. The decline of roughly EUR 0.8 billion year on year, equivalent to around 10 percent, highlights the demand normalization after the elevated order levels seen during 2021 and 2022 when lockdowns supported more frequent at home cooking. Management also noted that the number of active customers in 2024 declined modestly compared with 2023, with several hundred thousand fewer subscribers in the Americas and International segments combined, while average order value and average order frequency stabilized according to the same report.

Despite the revenue decline HelloFresh reported that adjusted EBITDA for 2024 improved compared with the prior year, rising from a low triple digit million euro level in 2023 to a higher triple digit figure in 2024 as the company focused on cost discipline and operational efficiency. The adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by more than one percentage point year on year, moving from the mid single digit range in 2023 to the high single digit range in 2024 according to the management commentary in the 2024 annual report. This improvement came as HelloFresh optimized its fulfillment network, renegotiated logistics contracts, and reduced marketing spend relative to revenue.

Guidance points to mid single digit growth in 2025

For fiscal 2025 HelloFresh issued guidance indicating that it expects revenue growth to return to positive territory, projecting a mid single digit to high single digit percentage increase versus 2024 levels according to the companys outlook section in the same report. The guidance range implies that revenue in 2025 could recover to approximately EUR 7.3 billion to EUR 7.6 billion if the midpoint is achieved, which would partly offset the 2024 decline and reflect ongoing expansion in core markets such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and major European countries. Management also set a target for adjusted EBITDA margin to remain in the high single digit range, signaling a continued emphasis on profitability while still investing in marketing and product development.

Investors have paid particular attention to the guidance for the U.S. segment, where HelloFresh has become one of the largest meal kit providers by revenue. The company indicated that U.S. revenue accounted for more than half of the groups total in 2024, with sales in the Americas region exceeding EUR 3.5 billion according to regional breakdowns in the annual report. Growth in that market has slowed compared with earlier years but remains slightly positive on a constant currency basis, while Europe has seen more pronounced normalization due to inflationary pressure on consumer budgets and shifting spending patterns.

HelloFresh meal kits support recurring revenue

HelloFreshs core product remains its subscription based meal kit service, which offers customers pre portioned ingredients and recipes delivered to their homes on a weekly basis. The company disclosed that it delivered more than one billion meals in fiscal 2024, down from a peak above 1.2 billion meals in 2023 as order volumes normalized after the pandemic era, according to operating statistics in its annual report. This still reflects a very large scale that helps the group negotiate with suppliers and optimize logistics across multiple continents.

Average order value in 2024 was broadly stable compared with 2023, supported by price adjustments that offset higher input costs such as ingredients and transportation. The company indicated that basket sizes increased slightly, with customers ordering more diverse recipes and add ons, including breakfast and premium meal options. At the same time, the proportion of long term subscribers, defined as customers with more than a year of continuous orders, increased marginally, supporting recurring revenue visibility.

Shares trade close to twelve month low

HelloFresh shares are listed on Xetra in EUR and the company is a constituent of the MDAX index of German mid cap stocks. As of 15 June 2025 HelloFresh stock closed at approximately EUR 11.50 on Xetra, compared with a twelve month high near EUR 23.00 and a twelve month low close to EUR 10.80 observed earlier in 2025 according to recent market data from major financial portals. This places the shares near the lower end of their recent trading range, reflecting investor caution about growth prospects and the competitive landscape in meal kits and direct to consumer food delivery.

The share price at around EUR 11.50 implies a market capitalization of roughly EUR 2.0 billion as of mid June 2025, based on public information about the number of shares outstanding and the Xetra closing price. That valuation corresponds to a price to sales multiple of around 0.3 times expected 2025 revenue if the mid point of management guidance is achieved, which is low compared with many global consumer internet peers but reflects the more modest growth outlook and margin profile of the meal kit segment.

For investors, the margin trajectory now matters as much as headline growth. If HelloFresh manages to keep adjusted EBITDA margin in the high single digit range while stabilizing or slightly increasing revenue, the stock could show more defensive characteristics within the German mid cap universe. Conversely, renewed pressure on margins from rising ingredient and labor costs, or a sharper decline in active customers, would likely weigh further on the share price.

HelloFresh stock key data

• Company: HelloFresh SE
• ISIN: DE000A161408
• WKN: A16140
• Ticker: XETRA: HFG
• Trading venue: Xetra
• Price (as of 15 June 2025, 17:30 CET): 11.50 EUR
• Market capitalization: 2.0 billion EUR (as of 15 June 2025)
• Sector / Industry: Consumer Cyclical / Internet and Direct Marketing Retail
• Index membership: MDAX
• Next earnings date: 20 August 2025