Hawkish Dot Plot Overwhelms Iran Peace Hopes, Sending WisdomTree 3x Silver ETC Down 7.4%

Fed holds rates at 3.50-3.75% as dot plot signals at least one 2025 hike; leveraged silver ETP falls 7.4%, seven-day loss exceeds 15%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh kept interest rates on hold at 3.50-3.75% after the June 17 FOMC meeting, but the updated dot plot dealt a fresh blow to precious metals hawks. Nine of the 18 committee members now see at least one rate hike before year-end, a stance that has rattled leveraged silver products. The WisdomTree Silver 3x Daily Leveraged ETP shed 7.40% on the session, touching $9.79, and its seven-day slide now exceeds 15%.

The day began with a flicker of hope. Silver spot prices shot to an intraday high of $69.85 per ounce on reports suggesting possible progress toward a US-Iran peace deal. That geopolitical détente briefly lowered inflation expectations and softened the dollar, offering the white metal a temporary lift. But the rally evaporated as the Fed’s restrictive outlook reasserted itself. Spot silver closed at $66.31, and the triple-leveraged ETC reversed all its early gains before ending in the red.

The product’s 3x daily leverage on Solactive Silver Commodity Futures SL Index magnifies every swing. With an annualized volatility of 156%, it sits firmly in the highest risk bracket. Despite the brutal selloff, the relative strength index has fallen to 29.7, a level that typically signals oversold conditions. The gold-silver ratio stood at 64.05 on Thursday, with silver underperforming gold—a pattern consistent with hawkish monetary policy.

Geopolitical forces remain a two-edged sword. Ceasefire hopes between Israel and Hezbollah have reduced the safe-haven bid, while failed US-Iran talks kept crude-driven inflation worries in check for only a few hours. The structural story, however, offers a long-term counterweight. Physical silver demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, and data centers is unrelenting, and the market faces a deficit of 46.3 million ounces. That fundamental backdrop has done little to shelter leveraged longs from the Fed’s tightening bias.

The ETC manages roughly €330 million in assets, with a total expense ratio of 0.99%. Its synthetic replication structure tracks futures contracts, meaning daily rebalancing compounds losses in falling markets. The sharp drop has pushed the product deep into oversold territory on a technical basis, but with the Fed’s next moves tied to data rather than forward guidance, the path forward looks anything but smooth.