GTA VI Pre-Order Leak Sends Take-Two Soaring Ahead of Earnings with Options Pricing 9% Swing

Take-Two Interactive stock jumps nearly 7.5% on unconfirmed Best Buy leak suggesting GTA VI pre-orders start May 18, ahead of May 21 earnings report with options pricing a 9.4% swing.

Take-Two Interactive shares shot up nearly 7.5% on Thursday, propelled by an unconfirmed report that physische Kopien of Grand Theft Auto VI are about to go on sale. The surge, which added almost $2 billion to the company’s market value, comes just days before the video game giant is due to report fiscal fourth-quarter results — a combination that has options traders betting on a near-double-digit price swing.

The trigger: an email, allegedly from electronics retailer Best Buy, suggesting that pre-orders for GTA VI would open on May 18. Screenshots circulating online also indicated that partner retailers would receive a 5% commission on physical copies. Neither Rockstar Games nor Take-Two has commented on the leak’s authenticity.

The rally pushed the stock to €208.20 in European trading, building its monthly gain to more than 18%. Year-to-date, however, the shares remain 3.03% in the red. The move stood out starkly against the broader gaming sector — rival Electronic Arts barely budged.

Now attention shifts to May 21, when Take-Two will report earnings for the quarter ended March 31. Analysts expect revenue of roughly $1.55 billion, but profit forecasts are split. The consensus sits at $0.58 per share, while a separate survey has the figure at $0.56. A year earlier, the company delivered $1.30 a share on revenue of $1.58 billion.

The options market is pricing in a 9.4% swing around the release — far above the 5.6% implied move ahead of the previous quarterly report on February 3, when the stock actually tumbled 18.3%. That miss has raised the stakes considerably. With a market capitalisation of about $42 billion, even small shifts in sentiment can move the stock sharply.

Investors are less focused on the quarter itself than on the outlook for the title that dominates Take-Two’s valuation: Grand Theft Auto VI. The game is scheduled for release on November 19, 2026, for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. Its second trailer has already amassed over 160 million views on YouTube, and prediction market Kalshi assigns an 82% probability of an on-time launch.

The Best Buy leak, if genuine, would mark the first concrete sign that marketing is ramping up. A pre-order announcement — whether before or during the earnings call — would signal to the market that Rockstar remains on schedule. Any slippage in the timeline would almost certainly be punished quickly.

Take-Two’s balance sheet appears solid enough to support the final push. The current ratio stands at 1.14 and debt-to-equity at 0.71. Digital revenue, boosted by the Zynga acquisition, grew 18% over the fiscal year and now accounts for 97% of total sales. Recurring spending from titles like NBA 2K and GTA Online is expected to contribute the bulk of the company’s net bookings, which management has guided to $6.65–$6.70 billion for the full year — representing roughly 18% growth at the midpoint.

The May 21 conference call, scheduled for 4:30 p.m. New York time, will be the first opportunity for CEO Strauss Zelnick to address both the leak and the broader GTA VI roadmap. Analysts will be listening for any nuance in the guidance or commentary on consumer demand. If Zelnick confirms the path toward next year’s blockbuster cycle, the implied volatility could prove justified. Any hint of a delay or booking weakness, on the other hand, would likely erase the recent gains in short order.