Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte: Can OMAB’s Airport Stock Keep Climbing After A Turbulent Year?
02.02.2026 - 11:23:31
Airport stocks are not supposed to move like high growth tech, yet Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte has been trading with the kind of energy that keeps momentum traders glued to their screens. OMAB, which operates a portfolio of key airports in northern and central Mexico including Monterrey, has spent the past several sessions grinding higher on steady volume, extending a multi month recovery that has pulled the stock decisively away from its recent lows. The market tone is cautiously bullish, with every pullback attracting buyers rather than panic sellers.
In the very near term, the message from the tape is clear. Over the last five trading days, OMAB’s stock price has pushed modestly higher overall, with intraday volatility relatively contained. According to data from Yahoo Finance and Google Finance, the shares trade around the high 90s in U.S. dollar terms in New York, with the last close roughly 1 to 2 percent above where they started the week. It is not a melt up, but it is a constructive grind that signals accumulation rather than distribution.
Looking over a slightly longer 90 day window, the trend grows even more striking. After carving out a low near the mid 70s roughly three months ago, OMAB has rallied by more than 20 percent from that trough, decisively outpacing the broader Mexican equity indices and many global infrastructure peers. The stock remains below its 52 week high, which sits meaningfully above current trading levels, but it has now put plenty of distance between itself and the 52 week low. Technicians would describe this as having turned the corner from a correction into a new uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows now visible on the chart.
That pattern is especially notable given the macro backdrop. Airport operators live at the intersection of tourism, business travel and trade flows, all of which are sensitive to rates, inflation and geopolitical risk. Yet OMAB’s recent performance suggests investors are willing to look past short term jitters and focus instead on structural growth in Mexican air travel and the powerful nearshoring story that keeps funneling manufacturing into northern Mexico.
One-Year Investment Performance
If you had bought OMAB exactly one year ago and simply held your nerve, how would you feel today? According to historical price data from Yahoo Finance and Investing.com, the stock closed at roughly the mid 80s in U.S. dollars at that point. With the latest close now in the high 90s, that translates into a gain of around 15 to 20 percent on price alone, before factoring in dividends.
Put differently, a hypothetical 10,000 dollars invested in OMAB a year ago would now be worth approximately 11,500 to 12,000 dollars, ignoring any dividend reinvestment. That is not the kind of get rich overnight return that attracts meme traders, but it is a solid, equity like performance delivered by a bricks and mortar infrastructure play that throws off cash and operates in a regulated framework. For long term investors who prize visibility and yield, that sort of mid teens total return over twelve months is the kind of slow burn win that quietly compounds into serious money over time.
The emotional journey, however, has been anything but linear. Over the past year, OMAB shareholders have had to sit through bouts of sharp drawdowns as concerns about traffic normalization, regulatory risk in Mexico and global growth fears periodically knocked airport names lower. At one point, anyone who bought near the highs watched a chunk of their paper gains vanish as the stock sank toward its 52 week low. The subsequent rebound back toward the upper end of the year’s range has rewarded those who stayed put and punished short term traders who were shaken out near the bottom.
Recent Catalysts and News
The latest leg of the rally has not emerged from a news vacuum. Earlier this week, OMAB released updated traffic figures that showed passenger volumes continuing to expand at a healthy clip across its core network, with particular strength in domestic routes tied to industrial corridors in northern Mexico. Data from operator disclosures and local financial press coverage indicate that both business and leisure travel remain resilient, with year on year passenger growth running in the high single to low double digits at several key airports.
Shortly before that, investors had been digesting OMAB’s most recent quarterly earnings report, which reinforced the narrative of operational discipline and margin resilience. Revenue growth was supported both by passenger fees and by a steady improvement in non aeronautical income, including retail concessions, parking and real estate related activities around the airports. Several local outlets highlighted management’s comments about ongoing capex projects in Monterrey and other locations, framed as targeted upgrades rather than an aggressive expansion binge that could dilute returns.
Not all headlines have been purely upbeat. In financial media discussions during the past several days, analysts have again flagged regulatory risk as a key overhang for all Mexican airport groups. Any shift in the tariff framework set by Mexican authorities or renewed political scrutiny of concession agreements could weigh on valuations. For now, there have been no fresh regulatory shocks in the last week, but the memory of prior government interventions still lingers in investors’ minds and acts as a speed limit on how euphoric the market is willing to become.
Another subtle but important catalyst has been the continued drumbeat of nearshoring stories. Business publications and economic analysts keep highlighting northern Mexico as a major beneficiary of supply chain realignment, with new factories and logistics hubs mushrooming near the U.S. border. OMAB’s network of airports is strategically positioned to capture the business travel and cargo flows associated with that build out, and that strategic angle continues to surface in recent commentary from both company management and external analysts.
Wall Street Verdict & Price Targets
So how does Wall Street read this airport story right now? Recent research notes from banks tracked by Reuters and Bloomberg paint a broadly constructive picture. Several global houses including J.P. Morgan and Bank of America maintain positive recommendations on OMAB, with ratings clustered around Buy or Overweight. Their latest published price targets, issued within the past month, sit moderately above the current share price, implying upside in the high single to low double digit range over the next twelve months.
One major European bank, such as UBS or Deutsche Bank, has taken a more balanced stance, keeping a Hold or Neutral rating while nudging its target price higher after the recent traffic and earnings numbers. The argument from the neutral camp is straightforward. They acknowledge OMAB’s strong operating performance, healthy balance sheet and attractive exposure to structural air travel demand, but they worry that much of the good news is now reflected in the valuation. On traditional multiples like EV to EBITDA and price to earnings, OMAB trades at a premium to some regional peers, which can be justified only if traffic growth and regulatory stability remain intact.
On the more bullish side, U.S. houses such as Morgan Stanley point to OMAB’s superior return on invested capital and its disciplined capex plans as reasons the stock deserves that premium. Their models are built on the assumption that passenger growth will continue to outpace Mexican GDP and that non aeronautical revenue per passenger will keep creeping higher as OMAB extracts more value from its commercial footprint in terminals. Taken together, the consensus profile looks mildly bullish rather than euphoric, with few outright Sell calls and a skew toward Buy recommendations backed by cautious, not exaggerated, target prices.
Future Prospects and Strategy
At its core, OMAB’s business model is simple but powerful. The company operates a portfolio of regional airports under long term concessions, collecting regulated aeronautical fees on passenger traffic and aircraft movements, while also monetizing the real estate and commercial opportunities that come with busy terminals. That two engine model gives the stock a mix of defensive and growth characteristics. Even in slower macro environments, essential travel and business related flights keep a base level of traffic flowing, while rising middle class incomes and tourism trends can push volumes and spending higher over time.
Looking ahead over the coming months, several factors will shape how OMAB’s stock behaves. The first is traffic momentum. If passenger numbers continue to post robust year on year gains, especially in business focused airports like Monterrey, that will reinforce the bullish thesis that OMAB is a direct beneficiary of nearshoring and regional economic expansion. The second is regulatory tone. Any signs of tension between airport operators and Mexican authorities around tariffs or concession terms would quickly show up as valuation pressure, given how sensitive infrastructure investors are to political risk.
Third, investors will be watching capital allocation closely. OMAB has historically balanced dividends, modest buybacks and disciplined capex, but a sudden shift toward more aggressive spending could raise questions about returns. Conversely, a steady stream of shareholder distributions backed by growing cash flows could continue to attract yield oriented global funds searching for real assets with inflation protection. Finally, broader risk appetite will matter. In risk off episodes, even high quality airport operators can sell off alongside emerging market equities, regardless of their fundamentals.
For now, the stock sits in an intriguing spot. The five day and 90 day trends point up, the one year return paints a picture of resilience, and the gap between current pricing and the 52 week high leaves room for further gains if sentiment remains constructive. Yet the memory of past drawdowns and the ever present regulatory question mark prevent the market from becoming blindly optimistic. OMAB’s stock may not be the most glamorous name on the screen, but in a world hungry for yield and real world infrastructure exposure, it has quietly built a compelling story that still seems to have runway left, as long as investors are prepared to accept some occasional turbulence along the way.
