Grid Access, Not Megawatts, Is Keel Infrastructure’s Real Asset. Now It Needs Tenants.

Keel Infrastructure pivots from crypto to AI-ready sites, holding 2.2GW of pre-permitted grid capacity, but awaits hyperscaler leases amid mounting losses and 13.4% short interest.

The artificial intelligence boom is rewriting the rules of power supply, and Keel Infrastructure has positioned itself at the most congested point in the system. While many developers chase generation capacity, the real bottleneck is grid interconnection. That is precisely the scarce resource Keel holds: a pipeline of 2.2 gigawatts of ready-to-connect sites across Pennsylvania, Washington and Quebec, with 648 megawatts already secured.

The company’s transformation from a bitcoin miner to an AI-infrastructure play is nearly complete. It has moved its legal domicile from Canada to the United States and switched auditors from PwC Canada to PwC USA — a routine change tied to the relocation, according to chief executive Ben Gagnon. The move signals the final erasure of the firm’s crypto heritage, but the market is now focused on a more pressing question: when will hyperscalers start signing leases?

A costly pivot

Funding the transition has required deep-pocketed moves. Keel placed $458 million in convertible notes in June, carrying a 1.25% coupon and maturing in 2032. The proceeds are earmarked for expansion at its three flagship sites. Cash on hand stood at roughly $533 million at the end of the first quarter — a buffer the company needs badly.

The financial picture is stark. First-quarter revenue fell 23% to $37 million, dragged down by shrinking bitcoin-mining income. The operating loss landed close to $100 million, while the loss from continuing operations ballooned to $128 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at negative $17 million. Free cash flow turned deeply negative as the company burns through capital to build out its AI-ready infrastructure.

The contract gap

Keel’s strategic pitch is simple: the US power grid cannot keep up with AI’s soaring demand. Goldman Sachs projects data-center electricity consumption will double to 66 gigawatts by 2027. Grid connection wait times, once two to three years, now stretch to five or more in some regions. That gives Keel’s pre-permitted sites a powerful moat.

But that moat has yet to produce revenue. Gagnon has set a year-end target of signing three long-term leases for the Panther Creek, Sharon and Moses Lake locations. Management is deliberately waiting for building permits to be in hand before finalizing contracts, a strategy that could yield better terms but also delays revenue certainty.

The gap between promise and proof is widening. Rival Applied Digital recently clinched a 5.2-billion-dollar lease with a US hyperscaler for 210 megawatts of capacity — precisely the type of deal Keel still lacks. A signed contract would validate the commercial model, unlock project financing, and provide an earnings anchor. Until then, investors are betting on a thesis backed only by structural power scarcity.

Time and short interest

The waiting game has attracted significant bearish positioning. Roughly 13.4% of Keel’s freely traded shares are sold short. Should the company announce a tenant, the resulting squeeze could amplify any rally. Conversely, further delays risk undermining confidence.

The next major catalyst is the third-quarter earnings report, due later this year. By then, the market will expect tangible progress on the three targeted contracts. Keel’s balance sheet gives it some runway, but the cash burn and dwindling bitcoin revenue leave little margin for error. The grid connections are its fortress. The signatures are the keys to the gate.