Graphite One Stock Sinks 38% as Alaska Project Faces Local Opposition, New Rivals, and a Rare Earth Wildcard

Graphite One's rare earth find at Graphite Creek offers potential, but stock down 38% YTD, permitting competition intensifies, and public opposition mounts in Alaska.

Graphite One is juggling a rare earth discovery, a tightening permitting race, and a stock that has shed more than 37% year-to-date — with one calculation putting the slide at 38.64%. Shares traded at €0.74 in one recent session and slipped to €0.72 in another, remaining well below the 50-day moving average of €0.79. That technical weakness reflects a widening gap between the company’s strategic narrative and the hurdles it now confronts on multiple fronts.

Garnet material from the Graphite Creek deposit in Alaska has returned elevated rare earth element concentrations, with roughly 85% of the elements falling into the magnet metal or heavy rare earth categories — dysprosium, yttrium, and scandium among them. These are critical inputs for permanent magnets, aluminum alloys, and defense electronics, giving Graphite One a potential secondary revenue stream alongside its main graphite business. The company plans to work with a national US laboratory in 2026 to assess whether the REEs can be extracted at commercial scale, though technical feasibility, cost, and scalability remain open questions.

The rare earth angle arrives at a time when Graphite One’s regulatory edge is eroding. The US Department of Energy’s FAST-41 program, designed to fast-track critical mineral and infrastructure projects through federal reviews, has now admitted two additional domestic graphite ventures — one in New York and another in Alabama. That turns what was effectively a single-player lane into a multi-company scramble for permits, capital, and political backing. Speed of execution, not just strategic importance, is becoming the decisive factor.

On the ground in Alaska, the project is meeting organized pushback. During the Section 404 permitting process under the Clean Water Act, the US Army Corps of Engineers received 301 public comments. Of those, 56.8% expressed concerns and 26.6% outright opposed the mine. The Native Villages of Teller and Brevig Mission have requested high-level consultations with the Alaska District of the Corps, a move that could lengthen an already tight timeline. The environmental review currently runs as an Environmental Assessment, but the Corps has not ruled out upgrading it to a full Environmental Impact Statement. A decision is targeted for September 29, 2026, and Graphite One submitted a 331-page baseline data report in March covering fish stocks, groundwater, and air quality.

Trade policy has offered no relief. The US International Trade Commission recently concluded an investigation into Chinese graphite anode materials without imposing new tariffs, finding no material injury or threat to the buildout of a domestic industry. With China controlling more than 95% of global graphite processing, US developers must now compete on speed, financing, and industrial execution rather than rely on tariff protection.

Financing, however, is moving forward. The US Export-Import Bank has expanded its non-binding expressions of interest to a potential $2.07 billion package, with $670 million earmarked for the Alaska mine and processing operations and the bulk headed to the planned modular processing facility in Warren, Ohio. Management expects to file formal loan applications later in 2026 and is in discussions with five large North American investment banks for the remaining capital. A public equity placement worth 35 million Canadian dollars has already closed, with proceeds allocated to engineering, permitting, and long-lead items for the Ohio site.

Production ambitions remain lofty. The Alaska concentrator is designed to produce graphite concentrate at 95% purity, which will feed an Ohio plant capable of turning out 48,000 tonnes of battery-grade anode material annually by 2028. By 2031, Graphite One aims to expand that to 169,000 tonnes per year. All of it depends on securing permits on schedule and locking down the remaining capital.

For now, the market remains unconvinced. The stock trades 8.72% below its 50-day average, and the rare earth news has yet to shift the prevailing skepticism. The next hard deadline — September 2026 — will determine whether Graphite One can keep its regulatory approvals on track while fending off new FAST-41 competitors and proving that rare earths are more than a geological footnote.