Graphite One’s Two-Track Strategy: Rare Earths Emerge as a Wild Card While the Regulatory Clock Ticks

Graphite One pushes for accelerated Ohio plant permitting after tariff denial, while a rare earth discovery in Alaska offers a potential new revenue stream.

Graphite One is navigating a high-stakes balancing act. The company is pushing to secure accelerated permitting for its planned Ohio processing plant, even as a recent trade ruling dealt a blow to its core business case and a surprise geological find in Alaska opens up a potentially lucrative sideline.

The US International Trade Commission’s decision to deny tariff protection for domestic graphite producers has weighed heavily on the stock, which has shed roughly 27% since the start of the year. The shares now trade at $0.86, though they have managed to edge back above their 50-day moving average in recent sessions. That is a far cry from the 52-week high of $1.52, but the stock has clawed back about 19% over the past month to sit at $0.89.

A New Front in the Permitting Push

The company is seeking to bring its planned Warren, Ohio, facility under the FAST-41 program, which fast-tracks federal approvals for strategically important infrastructure projects. The Alaska-based Graphite Creek mine was already admitted to the program on June 2, 2025 — the first mining project in the state to receive that designation — with a target of completing all federal permits by the end of September 2026.

The logic is straightforward: synchronizing the permitting of both sites is essential to building a vertically integrated US supply chain on schedule. The Ohio plant is designed to convert graphite concentrate from Alaska into anode material for electric vehicles, energy storage systems, AI data centers, and defense applications.

Modular Build-Out and a Recycling Component

The Ohio facility is being planned on a modular basis. Two modules, each with an annual capacity of 25,000 tonnes, are slated to begin operations in 2028, initially using synthetic graphite as feedstock. By 2031, when the first shipments from Alaska are expected to arrive, the company aims to expand to seven modules with a combined capacity of 169,000 tonnes of anode material per year — enough, Graphite One says, to supply more than two million midsize EVs.

A recycling unit for recovering graphite and other battery materials is also part of the plan, though that component remains contingent on financing.

Rare Earths: A Potential Game-Changer

Independent tests have confirmed high concentrations of heavy rare earth elements — including neodymium and dysprosium, which are critical for electric motors and wind turbines — directly within the planned Graphite Creek pit. Crucially, the deposit contains no toxic byproducts such as uranium or thorium, which would allow for cleaner extraction.

A US national laboratory is currently evaluating extraction methods, with results expected later this year. If the tests prove positive, Graphite One could mine these valuable metals alongside graphite, potentially offsetting the competitive disadvantage created by the lack of tariff protection.

Financing Takes Shape

The US Export-Import Bank has issued non-binding letters of interest totaling $2.07 billion for the entire supply chain. A separate letter of interest for the Ohio plant alone, issued in September 2024, covers $325 million. Under the proposed structure, the EXIM Bank would fund 70% of total capital costs, with management in talks with US government agencies and the five largest investment banks in North America for the remainder.

On the customer side, Graphite One has a non-binding offtake agreement with Lucid Group covering natural graphite for battery anodes over an initial five-year period.

Three Alaska Native corporations — Bering Straits, Doyon, and Aleut — collectively hold 9.2% of the company’s shares, anchoring the project regionally.

The Clock Is Ticking

Beyond the trade and geology stories, a hard deadline looms. If Graphite One fails to secure all federal permits for Graphite Creek by the end of September 2026, the project loses its accelerated review status. That would jeopardize the planned construction start the following year.

Local opposition is complicating the process. Hundreds of mostly negative comments were submitted during the environmental review, and several communities have rejected the project. If regulators demand a full environmental impact statement in response to the protests, the entire timeline could unravel.

Two events now define the near-term outlook: the national lab’s findings on rare earth extraction, which could determine whether the byproduct can compensate for the missing tariff protection, and the September 2026 permitting deadline, which will decide whether Graphite One can keep its two-site strategy on track.