Graphite One’s Two-State Permitting Saga: Ohio Inches Forward, Alaska Stalls

Graphite One stock oversold (RSI 28.1), down 60% YTD. Ohio AAM facility permit accepted; Alaska mine faces year-long EIS delay.

The chart on Graphite One’s stock is flashing oversold territory, but the company’s real stress lies in the disjointed pace of its two projects. After shedding nearly 60% of its value since the start of the year, the equity bounced 2.35% on Friday to close at €0.50 – a modest reprieve that still leaves it down roughly 16% over the past week. The relative strength index now sits at 28.1, a level that often signals selling exhaustion, though annualized 30-day volatility of 53.35% suggests sharp swings in either direction remain a real possibility.

The lack of conviction among investors reflects the starkly different regulatory fortunes unfolding in Ohio and Alaska. In Conneaut, Ohio, the state environmental agency accepted Graphite One’s air permit application for its planned active anode material (AAM) facility, moving it into technical review. This is a formal milestone on the path to final approval and eventual construction, but not yet a green light. The plant is designed to start at 10,000 tonnes of synthetic AAM per year, with expansion potential to 25,000 tonnes, and the company still targets first output in the fourth quarter of 2027. The site was secured in May through a licensing agreement with a Canadian National Railway subsidiary.

That forward momentum stands in sharp contrast to the situation on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. The US Army Corps of Engineers has informed Graphite One that its Graphite Creek mine will require a full environmental impact statement, a decision that adds roughly a year to the permitting timeline. The Corps also called for an extended Section 106 review under the National Historic Preservation Act to assess potential impacts on historic sites. The heightened scrutiny follows a year of public consultation, including community meetings in Brevig Mission and Teller, where residents raised concerns about subsistence activities in the nearby Imuruk Basin. Hal Shepherd of the Norton Bay Watershed Council called the Corps’ decision a “victory” for the local tribes. Graphite One has rescheduled a meeting in Brevig Mission for July 28 after an earlier session was postponed due to the subsistence season, and management insists the revised schedule aligns with state permitting requirements and keeps 2029 as the target for first concentrate production.

The dual-track strategy – synthetic material from Ohio in the nearer term, natural graphite from Alaska’s largest known US deposit for the longer haul – is playing out against a backdrop of growing policy attention to critical minerals. The International Energy Agency noted in its latest report that global investment in critical mineral supply chains fell 9% in 2025, citing concentrated refining capacity and export controls. That environment could benefit domestic projects like Graphite One’s, but it also injects uncertainty around financing and the pace of government support.

For now, the market is waiting on two key milestones: progress on the Ohio EPA’s technical review, which will determine whether the Conneaut plant can break ground, and the July 28 community meeting in Alaska, which will test the company’s ability to rebuild local trust. The stock’s oversold reading may attract bargain hunters, but sustained gains will likely depend on clearer timelines from both regulators.