Graphite One's Rare Earth Tests Take Center Stage After Tariff Ruling and Rival Permitting Surge

Graphite One's shares drop 37% after US rejects graphite tariffs; the company pivots to rare earth extraction while competing with two rivals in the FAST-41 permitting race.

The Alaska-focused graphite developer, long a beneficiary of the US government's FAST-41 fast-track permitting program, finds itself navigating an increasingly crowded field — and a suddenly unprotected home market. While Graphite One once stood alone as the first mining project from Alaska to enter the accelerated approval portal, two competitors have since muscled into the same lane, and a March trade decision has left the domestic industry without the tariff shield many expected.

The US International Trade Commission ruled in March that imports of Chinese graphite do not materially harm American producers, closing the door on punitive duties. With China controlling more than 90% of global graphite processing, the decision removes a critical buffer for US projects trying to compete on price. Graphite One's shares have reflected the shift: the stock closed Friday at €0.73, down more than 37% since the start of the year and well off the 52-week high of €1.52. The 30-day volatility reading of 60% underscores the uncertainty gripping investors.

In response, the company is leaning harder into an unexpected sideline. Management plans to conduct further tests in 2026 with a national US laboratory to assess whether rare earth elements found in the Graphite Creek deposit can be extracted economically. Core samples from the planned mine zone contain elevated concentrations of dysprosium, yttrium, and scandium, primarily bound in garnet minerals. A successful parallel extraction process would unlock a secondary revenue stream and help offset the price disadvantage the US graphite industry now faces without tariff protection.

The permitting timeline remains the most visible pressure point. Graphite Creek was admitted into the FAST-41 program on June 2, 2025, giving it a coordinated federal review led by the US Army Corps of Engineers. The current project plan targets completion of core environmental and regulatory assessments by September 29, 2026, with construction slated to begin in 2027 and first production by 2030. Any delay would hit the schedule hard, especially now that rivals are on parallel tracks. Kilbourne in New York entered FAST-41 in October 2025 and aims to produce up to 40,000 tonnes of graphite concentrate annually upon approval. Coosa in Alabama followed on March 30, 2026, controlling more than 1.8 million tonnes of battery-grade natural graphite across 1,600 acres. The race for first US supply is no longer a solo sprint.

Local resistance adds another layer of complexity. Critics of the Alaska project are pushing for a comprehensive environmental impact statement, which could stretch the permitting process beyond the September 2026 deadline and push back the construction start.

Financially, Graphite One has locked in a massive backstop. The Export-Import Bank of the US has issued a non-binding letter of intent for up to $2.07 billion, covering roughly 70% of total capital costs. A majority of that funding is earmarked for a planned materials and battery anode plant in Ohio, with the remainder directed toward the Alaska mine. The company expects to submit a formal credit application later this year and is in talks with five major North American investment banks for the rest of the capital stack. A non-binding offtake agreement with Lucid for both synthetic and natural graphite anode materials provides commercial validation.

The supply chain vision remains ambitious. Concentrate from Alaska would ship through the port of Nome to the lower 48, feeding the Ohio facility — if full financing comes together. The US Geological Survey continues to classify Graphite Creek as the largest graphite deposit in the country, a distinction that underscores the asset's strategic value.

All eyes are now on September 29, 2026. If Graphite One clears the federal permitting hurdle on time, construction can proceed as planned and the company retains a credible shot at first production. Miss that marker, and the Kilbourne and Coosa projects will gain critical ground in the contest to supply America's graphite demand. The rare earth test program, meanwhile, offers the best near-term catalyst to keep investor attention fixed on something beyond the unraveling tariff story.