Graphite One’s Rare Earth Discovery Comes at a Critical Juncture as Tariff Protection Vanishes

Graphite One reveals magnet-grade rare earths at Graphite Creek, offsetting Chinese graphite tariff setback. Ohio plant and federal deadline loom.

The collapse of a long-anticipated tariff shield on Chinese graphite imports has left Graphite One scrambling for alternative advantages. But fresh assay results from the company’s Graphite Creek project in Alaska may offer just that: a significant rare earths by-product that could offset the competitive disadvantage. The timing could hardly be more pivotal, with a federal permitting deadline looming in September 2026 and the stock trading near year-to-date lows.

A Rare Earth Windfall from the Pit

Independent analysis of garnet material from the planned open-pit mine has revealed that roughly 85% of the rare earth elements present are magnet-grade or heavy rare earths — the most sought-after types for defence and clean-energy supply chains. Dysprosium, a critical input for permanent magnets, was detected at concentrations of 32 to 63 parts per million, while yttrium ranged from 198 to 427 ppm and scandium from 84 to 141 ppm. The samples were taken from drill cores that lie within the footprint of the deposit outlined in the February 2025 feasibility study, meaning any future extraction could begin early in the mine plan.

Graphite One has not yet demonstrated an economic process to separate these metals from the garnet material. But the company plans to develop a test programme with a U.S. national laboratory during 2026, and positive results could dramatically expand the project’s revenue potential — and its strategic importance.

The Tariff Setback That Changed Everything

The need for such a buffer became acute in March, when the U.S. International Trade Commission ruled against imposing antidumping duties on Chinese graphite-anode imports, concluding that the shipments did not materially harm domestic industry. Without that price umbrella, US-based projects like Graphite Creek lose a key competitive edge. The market has already delivered its verdict: the shares closed at €0.73, down roughly 38% from the start of the year and more than 50% below the 52-week high of €1.52. On the latest trading day they fell 0.41%, though they managed a 1.1% weekly gain and remain below the 50-day moving average of €0.78.

Ohio as the Linchpin

In place of a tariff wall, Graphite One is banking on its planned processing facility in Warren, Ohio. The plant is designed to start operations in 2028, initially running on purchased graphite feedstock and producing 48,000 tonnes of anode material per year. By 2031, when concentrate from Alaska begins arriving, capacity is slated to jump to 169,000 tonnes — enough, the company says, to supply more than two million mid-sized electric vehicles annually. A multi-year off-take agreement with luxury EV maker Lucid is already in place, along with additional non-binding memoranda of understanding.

The Ohio operation has been enrolled under the FAST-41 programme, a federal initiative that accelerates permitting for strategically important infrastructure. That speed, however, now comes with more competition. In March, two rival graphite projects — Coosa in Alabama and Kilbourne in New York — also secured FAST-41 status, eroding Graphite One’s early-mover advantage.

A Tight Permitting Clock with Local Headwinds

All federal approvals for Graphite Creek must be completed by 29 September 2026. That deadline covers the environmental review and a Clean Water Act permit — and it is already under pressure from local opposition. Of the 301 public comments submitted on the water-permitting process, nearly 57% raised environmental concerns and more than 26% rejected the project outright. Critics are urging the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to demand a full environmental impact statement instead of the current, less rigorous assessment. The Corps has not ruled out that option, and a switch to the more exhaustive process would almost certainly push back the planned construction start in 2027.

Financing Largely Lined Up, but Formalisation Awaits

The U.S. Export-Import Bank has issued non-binding letters of interest totalling $2.07 billion: $670 million for the Alaska mine and $1.4 billion for the Ohio plant. That sum is expected to cover roughly 70% of total project costs. Formal loan applications are slated for later in 2026. For the remaining 30%, management is in talks with five North American investment banks. In February, the company also completed an equity financing that grossed C$35 million.

Political Tailwinds Could Tip the Balance

The broader policy environment remains supportive. The U.S. Geological Survey’s final critical-minerals list, published in November 2025, includes graphite explicitly, and rare earths such as dysprosium are flagged as supply-chain pinch points. China, which currently controls more than 90% of global graphite processing, could supply up to 80% of both battery-grade graphite and rare earths by 2035. The United States is entirely dependent on imports for natural graphite today.

Graphite One’s next catalysts are clear: progress on the rare earth extraction test plan with the national lab, a successful permitting sprint toward the September 2026 finish line, and the formal EXIM credit applications. With the stock highly sensitive to news flow, each of these milestones could redefine the project’s valuation — and whether the rare earth discovery proves to be the offset the company badly needs.